4-wallet event cluster
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four wallets simultaneously flipped into Yes by selling No around 87-89¢, and the broader cluster has been building a coordinated thesis across six related Iran-event markets with meaningful size.
Total
$39,528
Trades
4
Analysis
- Four wallets made the same Yes bet at nearly the same time, putting $39.5k behind a low-probability outcome.
- This cluster has traded 6 related Iran markets for $86.8k total, showing a coordinated event-wide thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They entered around 11-13¢ implied Yes, which is a cheap price if they think an official end-of-operations announcement is more likely than the market says.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 12¢
Detected April 24, 2026 at 9:08 PM