Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $275,149.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
82% winner cross-market thesis
A highly profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is opening a fresh long-shot Yes position as part of a $42k cross-market thesis across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $624k across nearly $12M invested
- They placed $42k across 4 related Iran-operation markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
- This is a fresh Yes position at 3¢ after previously closing a No trade, so they appear to be repositioning into a cheap upside outcome
$4,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial event trader buys Yes
A repeat cross-market trader with a decent resolved track record just opened a fresh $7.1k Yes position at 7-8¢ in a major geopolitical event market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a new low-priced thesis across this event.
- This wallet has traded 49 related markets across 29 events and wins 69% of resolved bets.
- They just opened a fresh $7.1k Yes position at 7-8¢ after prior positions here were already closed.
- Buying at 8¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market implies they think the chance of an official end announcement is meaningfully higher than the market does.
$7,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
79% win-rate event bettor
A profitable wallet with a 79% win rate is expressing the same event thesis across multiple related markets, and this trade converts to a fresh buy on a low-priced outcome at 14¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $10.7k overall.
- They are betting the same thesis across 2 related markets with nearly $13k deployed.
- Selling No at 86¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢, a cheap entry if they are right.
$5,888 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Pro event trader thesis
A high-volume serial event trader with 925 resolved bets and $244k profit is building a consistent cross-market thesis on this Iran event by buying No at 84¢.
- This bettor has 925 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $244k lifetime
- They have placed nearly $50k across 5 related markets in this same event, showing a deliberate event-wide view
- Buying No at 84¢ suggests they think no official end-of-operations announcement arrives by April 30
$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
86% winner, event-wide thesis
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $1.26M in profits is taking a fresh $4.1k Yes position as part of a broader 5-market thesis in this event.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime.
- They have traded 149 markets across 93 events, and now hold a 5-market position set on this same event.
- Bought Yes at 17¢ after the market fell 26.5 points in a week, suggesting they see the odds as too low.
$4,132 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 919 resolved bets and $221k profit is extending a broad event thesis by buying No in this Trump-Iran market despite already elevated odds.
- This bettor has 919 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $221k overall.
- They have traded 5 markets in this same event for $49k total, which suggests a deliberate multi-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 87¢ even after a sharp move, showing they still see the chance of an April 30 end announcement as very low.
$1,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Pro cross-market trader flips Yes
A proven high-volume cross-market trader with a 67% win rate appears to be flipping from a previously closed No position into Yes across this event, making this a notable thesis-driven move despite the modest size.
- This bettor has a 67% win rate across 1,288 resolved markets and is up $223k lifetime.
- They traded 4 related markets in the same event for $41k total, suggesting a broader event-level view rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of No at 60¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 40¢, a fresh reversal after closing a much larger No position.
$1,057 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
82% winner reloading No
A highly profitable wallet with an 82% win rate reopened a sizable No position across multiple related Iran markets, signaling a deliberate event-wide thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 82% of 823 resolved trades and is up $605k lifetime
- They are betting across 3 related Iran markets with about $24k total, showing a broader event thesis
- This is a fresh No buy after previously closing an earlier position, re-entering around 66¢
$7,901 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate is taking a fresh pro-Yes position in a major geopolitical event market during a strong event-wide volume surge.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $1.13M lifetime
- They have traded 144 markets across 90 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Their sale of No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 37¢, close to the current 38-39¢ market
$1,849 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable event specialist
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.37M P&L opened a fresh Yes position at 34¢ on a major geopolitics market after previously trading both sides, making this a noteworthy thesis bet despite the modest size.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, a 64% win rate, and $1.37M in profit
- They regularly trade related markets across the same event — 53 markets over 38 events suggests a repeatable edge
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 34¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see the end-of-operations chance as meaningfully higher
$2,999 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x6e02...bfce — Outcome 11243482, $684,949 (59% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 11243482, $219,664 (68% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 11243482, $58,412 (58% win rate)
- 0x8cce...5c11 — Outcome 43306201, $27,960 (97% win rate)
- 0xf0d9...e4ee — Outcome 11243482, $26,687
- 0xe885...38ef — Outcome 11243482, $22,916 (43% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — Outcome 11243482, $20,851 (46% win rate)
- 0x79bf...96a8 — Outcome 11243482, $19,000
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — Outcome 11243482, $17,523 (19% win rate)
- 0xa372...1b3e — Outcome 11243482, $17,392 (14% win rate)
