Profitable cross-market bettor

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
Total
$1,572
Trades
1
Win Rate
46%
Wallet P&L
+$576,847
Analysis
- This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
- They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
- The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 50¢
Detected June 15, 2026 at 12:18 PM