Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether the United States, under Trump, will agree to Iran charging mandatory fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” if U.S. acceptance of Iranian tolls, passage charges, or similar transit fees is confirmed; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,572 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including recent buying from an 87% winner on Yes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,211.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.

  • This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
  • They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
  • The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.

$1,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
  • This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.

$1,993 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
  • This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.

$1,641 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
  • This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.

$2,006 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $31,544 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $29,529 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x6000...f302 No, $28,528 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xc040...beac Yes, $25,149 (44% win rate)
  5. 0xd426...334a No, $19,931 (42% win rate)
  6. 0x80a0...5708 Yes, $19,412 (36% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $19,392
  8. 0xbd04...fbb0 Yes, $17,894 (70% win rate)
  9. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $13,776 (64% win rate)
  10. 0x77c3...00c8 No, $11,524

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Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

14dWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?$7,211 tracked4 signalsStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsIranPoliticsIran CeasefireUraniumTrumpU.S. x IranNegotiation Topics
Yes
28¢
No
72¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Price History — “No
99¢
85¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

33m ago

$1,572 on No at 50¢

50¢72¢22¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

47m ago

$1,993 on Yes at 11¢

11¢28¢17¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

53m ago

$1,641 on Yes at 11¢

11¢28¢17¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

1h ago

$2,006 on Yes at 11¢

11¢28¢17¢

Related Theses