Smart Money SignalScore: 5.0

80% win-rate contrarian

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

A bettor with an 80% win rate and positive realized P&L made a sizable contrarian buy in this political market, paying 38¢ for Yes while the market has since fallen to 15¢.

Total

$3,445

Trades

1

Win Rate

65%

Wallet P&L

+$5,495

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy Yes at 38¢

U.S. x IranGeopoliticsPoliticsIranTrumpIran Ceasefire
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Detected April 10, 2026 at 11:42 PM

80% win-rate contrarian | PolySpotter