Proven geopolitics grinder

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $194k profit is buying No on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth tracking despite only a single signal.
Total
$3,071
Trades
1
Win Rate
74%
Wallet P&L
+$228,299
Analysis
- This bettor has won 223 of 303 resolved markets and is up $194k overall
- They trade heavily across related events — 90 markets across 62 events for $4.3M total volume
- Bought No at 76¢ in an active geopolitics market after a 13.5-point one-day move
Copy Trade
Buy No at 76¢
Detected April 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM