Part of: Israel military action against Iran by...?

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,881.

Categories: Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Israel, Military Strikes, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

17-wallet geopolitics cluster

A highly active, profitable cross-market trader from a 17-wallet funded cluster just put $6.3k on No in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the 86% side.

  • This wallet has won 70% of 360 resolved bets and is up about $285k lifetime
  • 17 wallets tied to the same funder have been tracked before, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 86¢ in a deep geopolitics market, backing the already favored side with meaningful size

$6,253 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

86% win-rate bettor

A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate is betting No in a geopolitically important market during a major volume surge, making this worth following despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up $333k across 77 resolved markets
  • They bought No at 80¢ as this market's 24-hour volume jumped to $320k and price moved 12 points in a day
  • The market is liquid and news-driven, so a sharp trader's view here is more useful than routine meme-market flow

$2,024 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp bettor backs No

A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate is taking the same event thesis across multiple related markets, adding a credible directional signal despite only one moderate-severity alert.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $333k lifetime
  • They are betting across 2 related Iran-Israel markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a random one-off trade
  • They bought No at 80¢ while the market is still liquid, signaling they see the current 22% Yes odds as too high

$2,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

86% winner buys No

A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets and $333k profit just bought No on a fast-moving geopolitics market during a major volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up $333k across 77 resolved bets
  • They bought No at 79¢ while this market's 24-hour volume jumped 14x and the Yes price rose 15 points
  • Buying 79¢ implies they still see No as the likely outcome despite the recent surge in strike fears

$6,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Proven geopolitics grinder

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $194k profit is buying No on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth tracking despite only a single signal.

  • This bettor has won 223 of 303 resolved markets and is up $194k overall
  • They trade heavily across related events — 90 markets across 62 events for $4.3M total volume
  • Bought No at 76¢ in an active geopolitics market after a 13.5-point one-day move

$3,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Proven geopolitics grinder

A high-volume geopolitics bettor with a 74% win rate bought No at 83¢ on an active Israel-Iran market, extending a large cross-market track record across 89 related markets.

  • This bettor has won 223 of 303 resolved trades and is up about $195k lifetime.
  • They have traded 89 related markets across 61 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off bet.
  • A $16.1k buy of No at 83¢ signals confidence that the current 18¢ Yes price overstates near-term strike risk.

$16,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

88% win-rate bettor

A highly profitable bettor with an 88% win rate made a fresh $3.75k buy on No after previously closing a small opposite position, signaling a new directional view rather than routine profit-taking.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $379k lifetime.
  • They made a fresh $3.75k buy on No after closing a small old Yes position, so this looks like a new view.
  • They bought at 75¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see No as the clear favorite.

$3,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb8cb...53d5 Outcome 96547715, $67,016
  2. 0xd74a...bd70 Outcome 96547715, $5,004
  3. 0x4959...ac90 Outcome 96547715, $4,508
  4. 0x8da2...ab27 Outcome 96547715, $4,000
  5. 0x7ab6...fa77 Outcome 96547715, $2,288
  6. 0xf041...dde5 Outcome 96547715, $2,202 (85% win rate)
  7. 0xa308...94b9 Outcome 96547715, $2,171
  8. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 96547715, $2,010 (86% win rate)
  9. 0x62f5...453f Outcome 96547715, $2,000
  10. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 96547715, $2,000

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Kharg Island falls in June

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Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael military action against Iran by...?$39,881 tracked7 signalsMiddle EastU.S. x IranIranIran CeasefireIsrael x IranIsraelMilitary StrikesGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Notable Trades

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

42d ago

$6,253 on No at 86¢

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

42d ago

$2,024 on No at 80¢

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

42d ago

$2,640 on No at 80¢

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

42d ago

$6,020 on No at 79¢

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

42d ago

$3,071 on No at 76¢

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

43d ago

$16,123 on No at 83¢

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

45d ago

$3,750 on No at 75¢

Related Theses