Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel will carry out a qualifying military strike on Iranian soil by April 14, 2026. It resolves to Yes if Israeli military forces launch drones, missiles, or air strikes that impact Iranian ground territory before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders following Israel-Iran escalation risk are using this market to gauge the latest prediction market odds and sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,750.

Categories: Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Israel, Military Strikes, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

88% win-rate bettor

A highly profitable bettor with an 88% win rate made a fresh $3.75k buy on No after previously closing a small opposite position, signaling a new directional view rather than routine profit-taking.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $379k lifetime.
  • They made a fresh $3.75k buy on No after closing a small old Yes position, so this looks like a new view.
  • They bought at 75¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see No as the clear favorite.

$3,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x485a...21cb Yes, $25,441 (33% win rate)
  2. 0x4baf...5fdf No, $6,736
  3. 0x88c4...129a No, $6,611 (86% win rate)
  4. 0xae7c...487e Yes, $5,664 (87% win rate)
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $5,200 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $4,913 (69% win rate)
  7. 0x5011...220e No, $4,300 (63% win rate)
  8. 0x61ef...b300 Yes, $2,726
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,294 (49% win rate)
  10. 0xf041...dde5 Yes, $2,202 (86% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

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Covers 2 related markets

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

10d$3,750 tracked1 signalMiddle EastU.S. x IranIranIran CeasefireIsrael x IranIsraelMilitary StrikesGeopolitics
Yes
25¢
No
76¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “No
82¢
65¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

2h ago

$3,750 on No at 75¢

75¢76¢1¢

Related Theses

Israel Iran Strike Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter