Part of: Israel military action against Iran by...?
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,881.
Categories: Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Israel, Military Strikes, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
17-wallet geopolitics cluster
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader from a 17-wallet funded cluster just put $6.3k on No in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the 86% side.
- This wallet has won 70% of 360 resolved bets and is up about $285k lifetime
- 17 wallets tied to the same funder have been tracked before, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 86¢ in a deep geopolitics market, backing the already favored side with meaningful size
$6,253 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
86% win-rate bettor
A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate is betting No in a geopolitically important market during a major volume surge, making this worth following despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up $333k across 77 resolved markets
- They bought No at 80¢ as this market's 24-hour volume jumped to $320k and price moved 12 points in a day
- The market is liquid and news-driven, so a sharp trader's view here is more useful than routine meme-market flow
$2,024 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Sharp bettor backs No
A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate is taking the same event thesis across multiple related markets, adding a credible directional signal despite only one moderate-severity alert.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $333k lifetime
- They are betting across 2 related Iran-Israel markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a random one-off trade
- They bought No at 80¢ while the market is still liquid, signaling they see the current 22% Yes odds as too high
$2,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
86% winner buys No
A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets and $333k profit just bought No on a fast-moving geopolitics market during a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up $333k across 77 resolved bets
- They bought No at 79¢ while this market's 24-hour volume jumped 14x and the Yes price rose 15 points
- Buying 79¢ implies they still see No as the likely outcome despite the recent surge in strike fears
$6,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven geopolitics grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $194k profit is buying No on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth tracking despite only a single signal.
- This bettor has won 223 of 303 resolved markets and is up $194k overall
- They trade heavily across related events — 90 markets across 62 events for $4.3M total volume
- Bought No at 76¢ in an active geopolitics market after a 13.5-point one-day move
$3,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Proven geopolitics grinder
A high-volume geopolitics bettor with a 74% win rate bought No at 83¢ on an active Israel-Iran market, extending a large cross-market track record across 89 related markets.
- This bettor has won 223 of 303 resolved trades and is up about $195k lifetime.
- They have traded 89 related markets across 61 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off bet.
- A $16.1k buy of No at 83¢ signals confidence that the current 18¢ Yes price overstates near-term strike risk.
$16,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
88% win-rate bettor
A highly profitable bettor with an 88% win rate made a fresh $3.75k buy on No after previously closing a small opposite position, signaling a new directional view rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $379k lifetime.
- They made a fresh $3.75k buy on No after closing a small old Yes position, so this looks like a new view.
- They bought at 75¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see No as the clear favorite.
$3,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0xb8cb...53d5 — Outcome 96547715, $67,016
- 0xd74a...bd70 — Outcome 96547715, $5,004
- 0x4959...ac90 — Outcome 96547715, $4,508
- 0x8da2...ab27 — Outcome 96547715, $4,000
- 0x7ab6...fa77 — Outcome 96547715, $2,288
- 0xf041...dde5 — Outcome 96547715, $2,202 (85% win rate)
- 0xa308...94b9 — Outcome 96547715, $2,171
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 96547715, $2,010 (86% win rate)
- 0x62f5...453f — Outcome 96547715, $2,000
- 0x81a6...762e — Outcome 96547715, $2,000
Related Theses
Kharg Island falls in June
Covers 2 related markets
