74% win-rate geopolitics bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and nearly $200k in profit is taking a fresh No position in a major geopolitics market.
Total
$1,215
Trades
1
Win Rate
74%
Wallet P&L
+$228,299
Analysis
- This bettor has won 225 of 305 resolved trades and is up about $199k overall.
- They trade across related events at scale — 90 markets and $4.3M tracked — which suggests a repeatable thesis-driven process.
- They bought No at 53¢ while this market has jumped 18 points in a day, signaling conviction against the recent move.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 53¢
Detected April 13, 2026 at 11:21 AM