Part of: Israel military action against Iran by...?
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,995.
Categories: Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Israel, Military Strikes, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets piled into Yes with enough size to move the market sharply, and one of them is a proven profitable trader buying the low-probability side at 12-17¢.
- Three wallets put $7.3k behind Yes in a short burst and pushed the price up about 27%.
- One of the buyers wins 75% of their resolved bets and is up $23.6k across 102 markets.
- Most of the buying came at 12-17¢, suggesting they see the 17% odds as too low despite the market's recent pullback.
$7,306 on Yes
Repeat new whale on No
A repeat new wallet is deploying meaningful size across related Israel-Iran markets, and this fresh $10.8k buy on No suggests concentrated conviction despite only limited history.
- An 8-day-old wallet has already made $33.2k of flagged bets across 2 related markets
- This trade put $10.8k on No at 88¢, a high-conviction position on a major geopolitics market
- The wallet is 2-for-2 so far and already up about $10.6k, though the track record is still very early
$10,832 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
86% winner adds correlated NO
A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets is adding a correlated geopolitical position by buying No at 87¢, aligning with an 86% market view in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up $333k across 77 resolved markets
- They are betting No at 87¢ in a geopolitical market, matching the market's 86% view with a modest edge
- This alert is backed by cross-market positioning in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
$1,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable event-thesis trader
A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is expressing a directional thesis on this Israel-Iran event by selling No at 83¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢.
- This bettor wins 74% of 306 resolved trades and is up $201k lifetime
- They have traded 95 markets across 65 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven process
- Selling No at 83¢ is the same as buying Yes at 17¢, close to the current 18¢ market price
$1,659 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
74% winner betting NO
A high-volume geopolitical market drew a buy from a wallet with a strong long-term record and extensive cross-market event trading, making this a credible thesis-driven position worth watching.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades across 305 markets and is up about $199k.
- They have traded 92 markets across 63 related events, which points to a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- They bought No at 54¢ in a major geopolitics market after a 7.5-point one-day move, suggesting they still see the strike odds as too high.
$1,042 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
74% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought No at 53¢ in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis worth following despite the modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved markets across 305 bets and is up about $199k.
- They have traded 92 related markets across 63 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge.
- Bought No at 53¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see the strike risk as overpriced.
$2,273 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
74% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and nearly $200k in profit is taking a fresh No position in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 225 of 305 resolved trades and is up about $199k overall.
- They trade across related events at scale — 90 markets and $4.3M tracked — which suggests a repeatable thesis-driven process.
- They bought No at 53¢ while this market has jumped 18 points in a day, signaling conviction against the recent move.
$1,215 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
86% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A wallet with an 86% win rate and $333k profit is buying No in a fast-moving geopolitical market, making this a credible thesis trade despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up $333k across 77 resolved markets
- They bought No at 56¢ in a major geopolitical market after a 19-point one-day move, suggesting they still see the strike risk as overpriced
- This wallet is trading across 2 related markets in the same event with nearly $15.9k of event exposure
$1,761 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven high-win-rate bettor is expressing a cross-market geopolitical thesis here by effectively buying Yes around 29¢, which is notable despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $382k lifetime
- They effectively bought Yes at 29¢ by selling No at 71¢, a price that implies strong upside if tensions escalate
- The signal spans 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet
$1,424 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0xa3d3...d424 — Outcome 69918305, $12,500 (49% win rate)
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Outcome 69918305, $10,614 (22% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 69918305, $10,056 (84% win rate)
- 0x24fc...9fd4 — Outcome 69918305, $10,000
- 0x1fd2...21eb — Outcome 69918305, $6,876
- 0xa9c9...224c — Outcome 69918305, $5,000 (75% win rate)
- 0x98e1...0f24 — Outcome 69918305, $5,000
- 0xf4c8...21e8 — Outcome 69918305, $4,796
- 0x682e...70bd — Outcome 69918305, $3,475 (62% win rate)
- 0x28c6...9c6e — Outcome 69918305, $3,427
Related Theses
Iran meeting delayed until June
Covers 14 related markets
Kharg Island falls in June
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran talks in late April
Covers 10 related markets
