74% win-rate geopolitics bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought No at 53¢ in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis worth following despite the modest single-trade size.
Total
$2,273
Trades
1
Win Rate
74%
Wallet P&L
+$228,299
Analysis
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved markets across 305 bets and is up about $199k.
- They have traded 92 related markets across 63 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge.
- Bought No at 53¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see the strike risk as overpriced.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 53¢
Detected April 13, 2026 at 3:09 PM