88% win-rate geopolitical bettor

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate and over $1.1M in realized P&L is fading this geopolitical market by selling Yes, which translates to buying No around 71¢.
Total
$6,931
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$1,204,101
Analysis
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up $1.1M lifetime
- They trade across 83 events and 136 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They sold Yes at 29¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 71¢ in a liquid market
Copy Trade
Buy No at 71¢
Detected April 17, 2026 at 4:36 PM