Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?
6 signals across 1 market · $22,308 tracked · resolves Oct 4, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will receive at least 39% of valid votes in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election first round. PolySpotter is tracking $2,000 in smart money across the event, including a recent signal from a 90% winner scaling into Yes.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a substantial amount to an existing Yes position, with the new bet exceeding four times the market's 24-hour volume.
$7,730Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position with a sizable order relative to recent volume.
$2,482Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 4.4 - Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding $4,817 to an existing large Yes position, though their 90% win rate is only modestly above their average winning entry price.
$4,817Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.3 - Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a substantial amount to an existing Yes position, with the new bet exceeding four times the market's 24-hour volume.
$3,942Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - 90% winner scaling into Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding $2,000 to an existing Yes position in a relatively thin market, though the bettor's average winning entry price limits the strength of the demonstrated edge.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.0 - 90% winner scaling into Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding $2,000 to an existing Yes position in a relatively thin market, though the bettor's average winning entry price limits the strength of the demonstrated edge.
$1,337Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$11,672 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$8,154 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xeb490d…693e$2,482 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the Flávio Bolsonaro election odds on Polymarket?
The event covers a single prediction market asking whether Flávio Bolsonaro will win 39% or more of the valid vote in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election first round. Check the live market for current Yes and No prices.
What is the smart money doing in this Brazil election market?
PolySpotter tracks $2,000 in smart money across the event and one smart money signal. The recent alert headline says a 90% winner is scaling into Yes.
What does the Flávio Bolsonaro prediction market resolve on?
It resolves based on Flávio Bolsonaro’s share of valid first-round votes, calculated by dividing his valid votes by all valid votes cast. The traded threshold is 39% or more.
When does the Brazil presidential election market resolve?
Brazil’s first-round election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. The market is scheduled to resolve by October 5, 2026 at 02:59 UTC, subject to the exchange’s official resolution process.