Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,308.

Categories: World, Brazil, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a substantial amount to an existing Yes position, with the new bet exceeding four times the market's 24-hour volume.

This bettor is up $613,737 across 234 resolved trades and has acted across 61 events.
They added $7,730 to an existing Yes position, more than four times the market's 24-hour volume.
The new entry was 85¢, close to the current 87¢ odds; their 91% win rate is tempered by an average winning entry price of 87¢.

$3,942 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding $4,817 to an existing large Yes position, though their 90% win rate is only modestly above their average winning entry price.

This trader is up $815,147 across 261 resolved bets and has traded across 61 events.
They added $4,817 to an existing $27,517 Yes position, with the market near 90¢.
Their 90% win rate is strong, though their average winning entry price of 87¢ makes the edge less decisive at this price.

$4,817 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position with a sizable order relative to recent volume.

This trader has won 92% of 193 resolved bets and is up $57,168 overall.
They added $2,482 to an existing Yes position, more than twice the market’s 24-hour volume.
Their average winning entry is 88¢, close to this trade’s 89¢ entry, so the track record is stronger evidence than the price alone.

$2,482 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a substantial amount to an existing Yes position, with the new bet exceeding four times the market's 24-hour volume.

This bettor is up $613,737 across 234 resolved trades and has acted across 61 events.
They added $7,730 to an existing Yes position, more than four times the market's 24-hour volume.
The new entry was 85¢, close to the current 87¢ odds; their 91% win rate is tempered by an average winning entry price of 87¢.

$7,730 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% winner scaling into Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding $2,000 to an existing Yes position in a relatively thin market, though the bettor's average winning entry price limits the strength of the demonstrated edge.

This bettor has won 90% of 254 resolved trades and is up $770,581 overall.
The $2,000 purchase adds to an existing $4,416 Yes position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine entry.
The market is relatively thin with $5,796 in 24-hour volume and a wide 7-point spread, making the sizable trade notable.

$1,337 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

90% winner scaling into Yes

This bettor has won 90% of 254 resolved trades and is up $770,581 overall.
The $2,000 purchase adds to an existing $4,416 Yes position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine entry.
The market is relatively thin with $5,796 in 24-hour volume and a wide 7-point spread, making the sizable trade notable.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%