Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
10 signals across 1 market · $31,325 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the chance of a formal pledge or agreement, including a unilateral Iranian announcement or a deal involving the U.S. or Israel. PolySpotter has flagged notable smart money activity, including YES buying from a sharp 80% winner and a profitable serial event trader.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable trader joins No wave
Profitable serial cross-market trader joined a coordinated No move amid a 63x volume spike and sharp 25-point No price jump.
$4,577Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 11.9 - Profitable serial trader
A highly profitable, high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration despite the small trade size.
$1,979Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 8.0 - 95% winner linked cluster
Surface because an exceptionally profitable 95% winner is buying Yes, with linked-wallet clustering adding support despite modest size.
$1,722Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 7.3 - Coordinated No price surge
Three wallets bought No in a short burst, coinciding with a sharp 25-point move on a politically meaningful market.
$8,424Score: 6.6 - 85% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is re-entering No while the market moved sharply in the same direction.
$1,884Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 6.5 - Sharp 80% winner buying YES
Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 80% resolved win rate with positive lifetime P&L and bought Yes despite only a modest low-activity signal.
$2,500Wallet win rate: 53%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market track record bought Yes on a geopolitical market despite only a modest single-trade size.
$1,613Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - 85% winner buying momentum
Surfaced because a proven high-volume bettor with an 85% resolved-bet win rate bought No into a sharp rapid move on a liquid geopolitical market.
$1,947Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 2.5 - Funded cluster adding NO
High-scoring funded-wallet cluster with a serial cross-market trader adding to an existing No position on a relatively quiet political market.
$4,209Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 1.0 - Profitable serial event trader
A proven high-volume cross-market bettor with nearly $1M in profit bought Yes at 44¢ in a geopolitical market that has already moved up to 48%, making this a worthwhile directional signal despite the modest size.
$2,469Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x22e424…ef1c$4,577 · 1 market · 1 alert · 58% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$4,209 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$4,082 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xa94ff2…6d6f$2,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 53% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$1,979 · 1 market · 1 alert · 59% wins
- 0xe39783…bfcb$1,947 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xe3f2ec…e1c1$1,884 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0x73e35c…3239$1,722 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that Iran ends uranium enrichment by December 31?
The live odds are set by traders buying and selling shares in the market. On PolySpotter, you can track the current probability, recent price moves, and whether smart money is leaning Yes or No.
What has to happen for this Iran uranium enrichment market to resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The pledge can be unilateral or part of an agreement with the U.S., Israel, or another party, and it does not need to take effect before the deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked about $4,969 in smart money activity across this event, with recent alerts highlighting YES buying from a sharp trader with an 80% win rate and a profitable serial event trader.
Why are traders watching this Iran prediction market?
The market is tied to major geopolitical questions around Iran’s nuclear program, U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Israel, sanctions, and Middle East security. Any official diplomatic breakthrough or public Iranian pledge could significantly move the odds.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
This event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying public agreement or pledge occurs by December 31, 2026. If no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline, it resolves No.