What is the Iran uranium enrichment prediction market?

It is a market on whether Iran will publicly agree to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

What outcome resolves this market to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if Iran makes an official pledge to end all uranium enrichment, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the United States or Israel.

Does the agreement have to take effect before the deadline?

No. Any qualifying agreement or pledge made before the resolution date counts, even if it takes effect later or is never implemented.

When does the Iran enrichment market resolve?

The stated resolution deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.

What smart money activity has this market seen?

The market snapshot shows $3,637 in tracked smart money and one signal, with recent alerts describing traders and clusters adding to the No side.

Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A unilateral pledge or agreement with the U.S. or Israel qualifies, and the market has tracked $3,637 in smart money across one signal; live Yes/No prices are not included in the provided snapshot.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $38,233.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Nuclear, Middle East, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Negotiation Topics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

93% winner adding to No position

A highly active bettor with a 93% record added $3,270 to an existing No position, though their average winning price suggests the record may not indicate a clear edge.

This bettor has 442 resolved trades and a 93% win rate across 31 events.
They added $3,270 to a No position already worth over $17,000, increasing exposure at 88¢.
Their average winning price is 93¢, so the strong win rate alone does not establish a clear edge.

$3,270 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Funded cluster adding NO

High-scoring funded-wallet cluster with a serial cross-market trader adding to an existing No position on a relatively quiet political market.

Six wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction behind this side.
This trader has bet across 25 events with $920k in total activity and a 66% resolved win rate.
They already held $10.7k of No and added more at 78¢, above their 64¢ average entry.

$3,637 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Funded cluster adding NO

High-scoring funded-wallet cluster with a serial cross-market trader adding to an existing No position on a relatively quiet political market.

Six wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction behind this side.
This trader has bet across 25 events with $920k in total activity and a 66% resolved win rate.
They already held $10.7k of No and added more at 78¢, above their 64¢ average entry.

$4,209 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

85% winner buying momentum

Surfaced because a proven high-volume bettor with an 85% resolved-bet win rate bought No into a sharp rapid move on a liquid geopolitical market.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 1,710 bets and is up $17k lifetime.
They bought No at 59¢ as No jumped 25 points in just 3 minutes.
The market is highly active, with $295k traded in 24 hours, so this move has real momentum behind it.

$1,947 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable trader joins No wave

Profitable serial cross-market trader joined a coordinated No move amid a 63x volume spike and sharp 25-point No price jump.

This bettor has traded 79 markets across 51 events and is up $357k lifetime.
Six wallets bought the same No side, totaling $19.5k in the scan window.
No jumped 25 percentage points in 3 minutes as volume spiked 63x above normal.

$4,577 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Coordinated No price surge

Three wallets bought No in a short burst, coinciding with a sharp 25-point move on a politically meaningful market.

Three wallets bought $8.4k of No within 6 minutes, matching a 25-point surge in No odds.
One buyer has won 85% of 1,707 resolved bets and is up $17k lifetime.
The move is against a highly active market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a random thin-market print.

$8,424 on No

85% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is re-entering No while the market moved sharply in the same direction.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is positive across 13 prior positions.
They bought No at 60¢ as No jumped 25 points in three minutes, suggesting they are riding a sharp move.
This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier No position, not simple profit-taking.

$1,884 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

95% winner linked cluster

Surface because an exceptionally profitable 95% winner is buying Yes, with linked-wallet clustering adding support despite modest size.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $1.88M lifetime.
They bought Yes at 69¢ on a major geopolitical market with heavy recent volume.
The wallet is part of a 5-wallet funded cluster that has appeared together in prior runs.

$1,722 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial trader

A highly profitable, high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration despite the small trade size.

This bettor is up $1.18M lifetime across 1,377 resolved markets.
They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 114 events and $7.9M in tracked volume.
Entry at 67¢ follows a strong weekly move, suggesting continued conviction in Yes.

$1,979 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market track record bought Yes on a geopolitical market despite only a modest single-trade size.

This bettor has won 63% of 949 resolved trades and is up $1.17M lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 59 events and over $4.9M in similar positioning.
Entry at 45¢ implies they see meaningful upside if Iran makes a qualifying uranium-enrichment pledge.

$1,613 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

0x0224...292a — No, $84,004 (55% win rate)
0x4cbe...100a — Yes, $63,132 (77% win rate)
0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $22,516 (64% win rate)
0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $19,576 (71% win rate)
0x08c8...1da2 — No, $19,529 (73% win rate)
0xf92a...a517 — No, $17,136 (93% win rate)
0x5739...5f1a — No, $16,000 (58% win rate)
0x6139...6b7a — No, $13,274 (71% win rate)
0x2e0b...8070 — No, $11,272 (89% win rate)
0x5138...4fe5 — Yes, $10,629 (40% win rate)

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$38,233 tracked12 signalsGeopoliticsTrumpNuclearMiddle EastIranU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePoliticsNegotiation TopicsPeace Deal

Yes

10¢

91¢

Yes

10¢

91¢

Price History — “No”

99¢

92¢

86¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction