Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $4,036 in smart money activity on this market, including a signal from a profitable serial event trader.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,972.

Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a No position on a geopolitical market after recent momentum moved against Yes.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 657 resolved trades and is up about $485k lifetime.
  • They are a repeat cross-market trader across 26 events, with $267k flagged in similar event-positioning activity.
  • They are adding to No at 45¢, and No has already moved toward 50¢ as Yes weakened over the past week.

$4,036 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% historical win rate is buying Yes on a plausible geopolitical market, though the current stake is modest.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 events and 201 related markets.
  • Buying Yes at 60¢ suggests they see value despite the market falling 13 points over the past week.

$1,935 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcd71...d127 No, $14,024 (80% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $8,544 (47% win rate)
  3. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $8,310 (54% win rate)
  4. 0x246b...1196 Yes, $6,290 (79% win rate)
  5. 0x5039...946d No, $6,057 (56% win rate)
  6. 0x71ab...f015 No, $4,570 (63% win rate)
  7. 0x5652...00c9 Yes, $3,000 (74% win rate)
  8. 0x122c...fbed No, $2,444 (57% win rate)
  9. 0x8c66...44f3 No, $2,281 (84% win rate)
  10. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $1,600 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Crude oil market arbitrage

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Hormuz blockade persists

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran surrenders uranium in May

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Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

102dIran charges Hormuz fees by...?$5,972 tracked2 signalstollIranGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
52¢
No
49¢

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
74¢
62¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

7d ago

$4,036 on No at 45¢

45¢49¢4¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

9d ago

$1,935 on Yes at 60¢

60¢52¢8¢

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