Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,186.
Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil
Notable Trades
Coordinated No bets from proven winners
Three wallets are adding roughly $7,359 to No, including a highly profitable whale and an 84% winner, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite the long time to resolution.
- Three wallets placed about $7,359 on No, with all three already holding or having held No positions and continuing to build the same thesis.
- One bettor is up $1.07M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades, while another has won 84% of 626 bets.
- The No entries averaged about 77¢, near the current 73¢ price, leaving a modest discount while the market has recently moved toward Yes.
$7,359 on No
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,394 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
- They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.
$2,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market regular
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader is adding to a No position on a geopolitical market, but the signal is moderate rather than a clear sharp-wallet edge.
- This trader is up about $1.0M lifetime across more than $55M invested.
- They have traded 130 markets across 71 events, showing a repeated cross-market thesis pattern.
- They are adding to an existing No position while the market sits near 53¢.
$4,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
- They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.
$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
- They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.
$3,173 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate bought Yes at 53¢ on a geopolitics market already moving sharply upward.
- This bettor has won 75% of 81 resolved trades and is up $53.7K lifetime.
- They have traded across 26 related events with $211K total deployed, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- Bought Yes at 53¢ before the market moved to 56¢, with odds up 26.5 points over the past week.
$1,188 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,686 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xc851...cd2a — Outcome 92255006, $58,250 (52% win rate)
- 0x246b...1196 — Outcome 92255006, $28,523 (79% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Outcome 92255006, $16,234 (41% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 92255006, $15,102 (66% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 92255006, $14,982 (28% win rate)
- 0x551e...b0e0 — Outcome 92255006, $13,401 (72% win rate)
- 0x79bf...bcdf — Outcome 92255006, $10,010 (73% win rate)
- 0x38f5...6824 — Outcome 92255006, $8,182 (51% win rate)
- 0xb37a...f1b1 — Outcome 92255006, $7,404 (54% win rate)
- 0x92a7...eb78 — Outcome 92255006, $7,055
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Covers 4 related markets
