Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran and Oman will announce a qualifying diplomatic agreement on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market currently shows one tracked smart-money signal backing No, with $1,435 in smart money tracked; it resolves Yes only if an official agreement or comparable diplomatic instrument is announced by the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,551.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Serial 76% winner backs No

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate placed a fresh $1,116 No bet amid a sharp market move toward No.

  • This bettor has won 264 of 349 resolved trades and is up about $918,000 lifetime.
  • The wallet has traded across 84 events and 228 markets, suggesting an experienced, repeatable process rather than a random wager.
  • No was bought at 64¢ after the market fell 55.5% over the past week, reinforcing the bearish direction.

$1,435 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial 76% winner backs No

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate placed a fresh $1,116 No bet amid a sharp market move toward No.

  • This bettor has won 264 of 349 resolved trades and is up about $918,000 lifetime.
  • The wallet has traded across 84 events and 228 markets, suggesting an experienced, repeatable process rather than a random wager.
  • No was bought at 64¢ after the market fell 55.5% over the past week, reinforcing the bearish direction.

$1,116 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $30,208 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $23,624 (56% win rate)
  3. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $16,177 (34% win rate)
  4. 0x8792...4174 No, $15,617 (84% win rate)
  5. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $13,949 (62% win rate)
  6. 0x85a8...9281 No, $5,656 (93% win rate)
  7. 0x8833...2393 No, $4,500 (82% win rate)
  8. 0x96b4...7e39 Yes, $4,000
  9. 0xbf96...9942 Yes, $3,481 (79% win rate)
  10. 0x22a9...97ba No, $3,208 (59% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

7dIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$2,551 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
8¢
No
93¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
96¢
81¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

8d ago

$1,435 on No at 64¢

64¢93¢29¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

10d ago

$1,116 on No at 64¢

64¢93¢29¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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