Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
16 signals across 2 markets · $39,952 tracked · resolves May 14, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Jerome Powell will cease to be Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing a Yes/No outcome around Powell’s tenure, with PolySpotter highlighting smart-money activity including a signal from a 91% win-rate macro bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Linked sharp wallets fading spike
Three linked wallets, including two strong historical winners, are taking the No side against a sharp Yes price spike in a high-volume Fed Chair market.
$4,403Score: 16.6 - Profitable cluster fades spike
A small but coordinated No fade of a major Powell-removal price spike includes a profitable 75% winner and a high-volume serial cross-market trader.
$3,308Score: 9.0 - 89% win serial trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% win rate is effectively buying Yes on Powell leaving by selling No into a fast-moving market.
$1,195Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 8.0 - Elite macro cross-market sharp
Surface: this is an elite serial cross-market bettor with an 89% win rate and $1.5M profit buying No on Powell-out after a large price drop.
$2,498Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 8.0 - 92% winner fades spike
A highly profitable 92% winner is buying No against a large Powell-removal odds spike, with linked-wallet clustering adding corroboration.
$1,093Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 6.6 - 91% win-rate macro bettor
A very high-win-rate wallet with nearly $1.94M in profit just took most of the day’s volume in a thin Powell market, making this a credible copy-trade despite the modest ticket size.
$1,528Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 5.0 - Proven trader fading rally
Experienced cross-market trader with a strong long-term record is fading the sharp Powell-out rally by effectively buying No around 30¢.
$1,728Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial macro trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large 661-bet history is buying Yes as Powell-out odds have moved sharply upward.
$1,020Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial trader fades spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is fading a sharp Powell-removal price spike by effectively buying No at 25¢.
$1,647Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.0 - 4-wallet Yes flow
Four wallets are independently leaning Yes on a politically sensitive Fed market amid a sharp 1-day price move, though none has a standout win-rate record.
$5,767Score: 4.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$5,716 · 1 market · 1 alert · 59% wins
- 0xed107a…d2e5$3,693 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xbacd00…ab35$3,644 · 1 market · 1 alert · 48% wins
- 0xc6dd72…4b9f$3,214 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x5ccf62…79d7$2,748 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 65% wins
- 0x20d919…5490$2,453 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0x56c9fb…0d9e$1,528 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0xb43699…bb3c$1,240 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0xbd0477…fbb0$1,144 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x73e35c…3239$1,093 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Jerome Powell leaves as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?
The event’s Polymarket odds reflect the live market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will no longer be Fed Chair by the June 30, 2026 deadline. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside notable smart-money activity.
What outcome is being traded in this Jerome Powell prediction market?
This event covers whether Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve at any point before the listed deadline. Traders can take positions on the Yes or No outcome.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,528 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent signal tied to a 91% win-rate macro bettor. That does not guarantee the outcome, but it can help show where experienced prediction-market traders are positioning.
When does the Jerome Powell Fed Chair market resolve?
The market is scheduled around the June 30, 2026 cutoff and resolves based on whether Powell ceases to be Fed Chair before the deadline. Resolution will rely on U.S. government information, with credible reporting also sufficient if needed.