Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
18 signals across 5 markets · $108,455 tracked · resolves Apr 1, 2027
This event tracks Polymarket odds for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with the current child market focused on whether Donald Trump will win. PolySpotter has flagged $46,007 in smart money activity, including a pro cross-market fade and proven sharp buying NO, giving traders context on how experienced wallets are positioning.
Markets (5)
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4 signals · $59,357 tracked
- Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?10 signals · $37,765 tracked
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2 signals · $5,255 tracked
- Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1 signal · $3,250 tracked
- Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1 signal · $2,829 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet cluster buying No
A seven-wallet funded group is positioning on No alongside concentrated one-sided buying and a 45.8x volume spike, making this coordinated flow worth surfacing.
$2,164Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.4 - Linked-wallet cluster buying No
A profitable, high-volume trader is building a No position alongside coordinated same-direction bets from linked wallets during a major surge in market activity.
$4,190Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.3 - Linked-wallet cluster buying No
A profitable, high-volume trader is building a No position alongside coordinated same-direction bets from linked wallets during a major surge in market activity.
$3,716Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.2 - Seven-wallet cluster buying No
A seven-wallet funded group is positioning on No alongside concentrated one-sided buying and a 45.8x volume spike, making this coordinated flow worth surfacing.
$1,553Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.1 - Linked-wallet seller against YES
A seven-wallet shared-funder signal coincides with a 65.6x volume surge and sharp YES price movement, while this profitable trader sold YES.
$2,637Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.9 - Linked cluster buying Yes after sharp repricing
Three wallets committed $17,761 to Yes amid a 42.7x volume spike and a sharp repricing, with two wallets linked by a shared funder.
$14,477Score: 8.8 - Linked wallets on a three-market thesis
A linked-wallet signal combines with substantial positioning across three markets in the same Nobel event, though the trader’s historical win rate does not clearly show an edge.
$2,829Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 7.4 - Profitable trader adds to No
A highly active, profitable trader added to a substantial existing No position during a 42.7x volume spike and sharp repricing.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial trader adds to No
An experienced, lifetime-profitable trader added $3,250 to an existing No position in a thin market, making the trade notable despite no clear evidence of above-market win-rate edge.
$3,250Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 4.0 - 86% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate bought Zelenskyy No at 90¢, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest trade size.
$1,081Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5188fa…c804$27,027 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xc6dd72…4b9f$18,980 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$14,260 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x8f7a4b…db40$13,350 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 77% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$12,278 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 62% wins
- 0xcda2ea…6386$4,173 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$2,829 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
- 0xe74995…f771$1,081 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
The event hub tracks prediction-market pricing for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, currently through the market on whether Donald Trump will win. Odds can move as diplomatic events, nominations, media coverage, and smart money activity change trader expectations.
Is smart money betting on Trump to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show bearish signals on the Trump outcome, including a “pro cross-market fade” and “proven sharp buying NO.” That suggests some tracked experienced wallets are positioning against Trump winning this market.
How much smart money has PolySpotter tracked on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $46,007 in smart money activity across the Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 event, based on 2 smart money signals.
When does the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market resolve?
The event is expected to resolve after the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner, with the listed resolution date by October 10, 2026.
How does this Nobel Peace Prize prediction market resolve if there are multiple winners?
According to the market rules, if multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the event resolves to a single winner using the stated precedence order for listed names, including Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and Elon Musk.