Part of: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will be the resolving winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market, based on the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s announcement. The market resolves around October 10, 2026, and PolySpotter is tracking $13,350 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent sharp buying on NO.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,357.
Categories: Awards, Politics, Geopolitics, World
Notable Trades
Million-profit sharp bettor
Surfaced due to a proven sharp wallet with 77% wins across 1,074 resolved bets and $1.8M lifetime profit buying No despite only a modest signal score.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $1.8M lifetime.
- They have a large 1,074-bet track record, making the wallet itself the signal.
- Buying No at 89¢ suggests they see Trump winning the 2026 Nobel as even less likely than the market implies.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable sharp buys NO
A highly profitable bettor with a 77% win rate and $1.8M lifetime profit bought $8.9k of No despite only a modest signal score.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $1.8M lifetime.
- They put $8.9k on No at 89¢ in a deep, active market.
- The wallet has over 1,000 resolved bets, so the track record is unusually well-tested.
$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Pro cross-market fade
A highly active cross-market trader with a strong long-run record bought nearly $19k of No amid a major volume spike, fading Trump's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize odds after a recent price rise.
- This bettor has traded 136 markets across 79 events and is up $276k lifetime.
- They bought nearly $19k of No at 88¢, fading a Trump Nobel move after Yes rose 5 points this week.
- Market volume is running 18.6x normal, so this trade is part of a notable surge in attention.
$18,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven sharp buying NO
Surfaced despite weak volume-spike signal because a highly proven wallet with 82% wins and +$653k lifetime P&L bought a large No position.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $653k lifetime.
- They put $27k on No at 87¢ in a very active market.
- Entry at 87¢ suggests a high-conviction fade of Trump winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
$27,027 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x5465...5133 — Yes, $433,543 (75% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $212,052 (69% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $94,672 (53% win rate)
- 0x8df7...36c4 — No, $78,014 (72% win rate)
- 0x5188...c804 — No, $75,942 (82% win rate)
- 0x5c14...cc49 — No, $59,950 (85% win rate)
- 0x1934...0a4b — Yes, $58,000
- 0x2d99...4ca3 — No, $50,000
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $46,845
- 0x3c8a...b45a — No, $45,374 (100% win rate)
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