Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if both countries officially announce or credible reporting confirms a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement; otherwise, it resolves No. Numeric current odds were not included in the supplied metadata, but recent smart money alerts show several No-side signals alongside some Yes activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,256.
Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy
Notable Trades
19-wallet funded cluster buying No
A highly profitable wallet is adding to a No position within a 19-wallet funded cluster, creating a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited fresh capital.
- Nineteen wallets share the same funder, a strong coordinated-positioning signal on No.
- This bettor has won 94% of 18 resolved trades and is adding to an existing No position.
- No is being bought around 82¢ while the market has recently moved 5% toward Yes, suggesting the cluster is taking the opposite view.
$1,082 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
10-wallet No consensus
Ten wallets have collectively bought No for $28,186, while a highly active trader re-entered No at 70¢ before the price rose to 80¢.
- Ten wallets are betting No with $28,186 concentrated in the same direction.
- This trader has made 1,109 resolved bets and re-entered No at 70¢ before it rose to 80¢.
- The 11% one-day move supports the coordinated bearish signal, though the trader’s 64% win rate is not exceptional.
$1,135 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
94% win-rate bettor adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $7,970 to an existing No position despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 269 of 285 resolved trades, with $255,961 in recorded profit.
- They are adding $7,970 to an existing No position, bringing their investment to more than $18,000.
- No is priced at 77¢, while the market has recently moved 14 percentage points toward Yes.
$7,970 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Four-wallet No cluster with one sharp bettor
A coordinated four-wallet No position totaling nearly $7,000 includes one bettor with an 85% win rate, though the market’s recent Yes momentum weakens the signal.
- Four wallets placed nearly $7,000 on No, creating a concentrated directional position.
- One participant wins 85% of 112 resolved bets and is up $8,729 lifetime.
- The No position entered around 68¢, while Yes has recently risen 24.5%, making the trade notable but not risk-free.
$5,851 on No
Five-wallet rotation into Yes
A five-wallet rotation into Yes combines a major volume spike, sharp price momentum, and participation from highly successful cross-market bettors.
- Five wallets shifted toward Yes with $11,205 in activity, while the market surged roughly 44% over the past day.
- Two participants have strong records: one wins 94% of 458 resolved bets and another wins 80% of 664.
- Trading volume spiked 83x above its historical average, suggesting unusually concentrated attention on the ceasefire thesis.
$7,350 on Yes
6-wallet funded cluster adds No
A repeatedly flagged funded cluster is adding to a No position on a moderately quiet Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market, though the individual wallet’s track record is not especially sharp after adjusting for high average win prices.
- Six wallets funded by the same source are positioned around this thesis, a stronger signal than a single bettor.
- This wallet is adding to an existing No position at 76¢, bringing its market exposure above $7.8k.
- The bet is sizable versus recent activity, equal to about two-thirds of the market’s 24h volume.
$1,428 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
New repeat wallet on No
A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profit is buying No on a plausible information-sensitive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
- This 4-day-old wallet is already up $803 and has made two flagged bets totaling $3.8k.
- They are buying No at 71¢, leaning into the market’s 1-day move away from Yes.
- The market is liquid enough to enter, but the wallet’s track record is still very short.
$3,347 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
6-wallet funded cluster adds No
A repeatedly flagged funded cluster is adding to a No position on a moderately quiet Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market, though the individual wallet’s track record is not especially sharp after adjusting for high average win prices.
- Six wallets funded by the same source are positioned around this thesis, a stronger signal than a single bettor.
- This wallet is adding to an existing No position at 76¢, bringing its market exposure above $7.8k.
- The bet is sizable versus recent activity, equal to about two-thirds of the market’s 24h volume.
$3,397 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
New repeat wallet on No
A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profit is buying No on a plausible information-sensitive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
- This 4-day-old wallet is already up $803 and has made two flagged bets totaling $3.8k.
- They are buying No at 71¢, leaning into the market’s 1-day move away from Yes.
- The market is liquid enough to enter, but the wallet’s track record is still very short.
$1,773 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% historical win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes at 26¢ on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $184k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 26¢, implying a potential ~3.8x payout if a ceasefire agreement happens.
- The market has drifted down 6.5% this week, so this is a sharp bettor stepping into weakness.
$1,045 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x48ee...008c — Yes, $29,008 (38% win rate)
- 0xa2c6...757b — Yes, $24,945 (100% win rate)
- 0xbe48...683f — No, $24,831 (80% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $20,076 (78% win rate)
- 0x7e52...00f5 — Yes, $16,925 (79% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $15,494 (70% win rate)
- 0x7319...0299 — Yes, $15,478 (26% win rate)
- 0xab19...4876 — No, $15,445 (60% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $15,000 (34% win rate)
- 0x5cd5...ac33 — No, $13,073 (94% win rate)
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