Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce a ceasefire or credible reporting confirms a mutual suspension of direct military engagement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,335 in smart money and 1 signal on this market, including activity from profitable geopolitics and cross-market traders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,855.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

New profitable wallet flips Yes

Very new repeat bettor with early profits is exiting No exposure, effectively taking the Yes side on a plausible geopolitical market.

  • This wallet is only 1 day old but has already made 5 positions and is up $314.
  • It has been flagged twice for larger bets, with $4.3k total across recent alerts.
  • Selling No at 54¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 46¢.

$1,335 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 659 resolved bets is buying No on a high-profile ceasefire market despite recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 61% wins across 659 resolved bets and $228k in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 157 events and $1.4M in tracked volume.
  • They are fading the recent Yes rally, buying No at 48¢ after Yes moved up 10.5 points this week.

$2,635 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitics market, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest size.

  • This bettor is up $384k across $2.8M invested, with 1,061 resolved bets.
  • They win 61% of resolved trades and have bet across 278 different events.
  • They bought No at 56¢, backing no ceasefire agreement by the deadline.

$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial geopolitics trader

Serial cross-market bettor with a large positive lifetime P&L is taking a fresh No position on a plausible geopolitical market, though the sizing is moderate and the edge is not overwhelming.

  • This bettor has traded across 27 events and is up about $320K lifetime.
  • They have a deep track record with 834 resolved bets and a 62% win rate.
  • The $2.75K No buy at 55¢ implies they see ceasefire odds below the market’s 44% Yes price.

$2,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the individual bet size is moderate.

  • This bettor has a long record: 834 resolved markets, 62% wins, and $320K lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $428K tracked across 49 markets, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style.
  • Entry at 54¢ on No implies they see the ceasefire deadline as less likely than current market odds suggest.

$3,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc701...920e No, $20,777 (32% win rate)
  2. 0x6139...6b7a No, $16,155 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x8bfe...c44d No, $15,866 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $15,524 (53% win rate)
  5. 0x2f03...ec6a Yes, $12,933 (41% win rate)
  6. 0x32b4...7f09 No, $11,240 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xf989...47cc Yes, $11,037 (66% win rate)
  8. 0x8c57...f939 Yes, $10,353 (69% win rate)
  9. 0x8448...79bb Yes, $10,000 (25% win rate)
  10. 0xbef5...1c5a Yes, $10,000 (56% win rate)

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Iran peace deal unlikely

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No US-Iran meeting soon

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

181dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$10,855 tracked5 signalsUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
43¢
No
57¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
62¢
58¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

18d ago

$1,335 on Yes at 46¢

46¢43¢3¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

27d ago

$2,635 on No at 48¢

48¢57¢9¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

49d ago

$1,120 on No at 56¢

56¢57¢1¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

49d ago

$2,750 on No at 55¢

55¢57¢2¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

49d ago

$3,015 on No at 54¢

54¢57¢3¢

Related Theses