Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market has recorded $31,083 in tracked smart money across three signals, including recent moves toward Yes and No. It resolves on January 1, 2027, based on official announcements or credible reporting confirming a mutual agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $79,698.
Categories: Politics, Russia, Ukraine Peace Deal, Geopolitics, putin, zelensky, zelenskyy, Ukraine, Trump
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader takes contrarian side
A profitable serial trader is making a contrarian Yes position across related markets, with a seven-wallet shared-funder signal adding corroboration, though the trader’s win rate alone does not establish an edge.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢, a contrarian position against the market’s 82% No odds.
- Seven wallets share a funder, and the trader has positions across four related markets totaling $19,692.
- The wallet is up $194,515 over 285 resolved bets, though its 66% win rate does not exceed its 84¢ average winning entry price.
$2,899 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable trader across four event markets
The trader has substantial profitable history and is positioning across four markets tied to the same event, though the win rate does not clearly exceed the average price paid.
- This bettor is up about $181,000 across 282 resolved bets, though their 66% win rate is not clearly above their average winning price.
- They have traded about $20,800 across four markets tied to this event; this trade sells No, equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.
$4,035 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet cluster flips to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is backing Yes as the market has risen 30% in one day, with a serial cross-market trader making a fresh directional reversal from a prior No position.
- Seven linked wallets share a funder and have concentrated about $1,258 into this market.
- This serial cross-market trader has participated in 94 markets and is now buying Yes after previously closing a No position.
- Yes was bought at 49¢ during a 30% one-day price rise, signaling meaningful recent momentum.
$1,520 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettors rotating toward Yes
A coordinated shift away from No, involving several historically profitable bettors, coincides with a 15.5-point weekly rise in Yes despite conflicting individual position histories.
- Eight wallets moved $25,450 toward Yes, while several were selling substantial No positions.
- The flow includes a bettor with a 90% win rate and another with a 74% win rate, adding credibility to the rotation.
- Yes has risen 15.5% over the past day and week, corroborating the coordinated directional move.
$25,450 on Yes
Six-wallet funded cluster favors Yes
Six linked wallets collectively took a sizable position favoring Yes, making this coordinated flow worth monitoring despite the lead wallet's mixed profit-taking history.
- Six wallets sharing a funder moved $6,716 on the same market, a strong coordinated signal.
- The lead wallet has resolved 67% of 113 bets and is up about $79,800, though its average winning entry of 93% limits the evidence of exceptional edge.
- The two No sales translate to buying Yes around 17¢ and 37¢, with the market now pricing Yes at 36%.
$4,113 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet cluster flips to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is backing Yes as the market has risen 30% in one day, with a serial cross-market trader making a fresh directional reversal from a prior No position.
- Seven linked wallets share a funder and have concentrated about $1,258 into this market.
- This serial cross-market trader has participated in 94 markets and is now buying Yes after previously closing a No position.
- Yes was bought at 49¢ during a 30% one-day price rise, signaling meaningful recent momentum.
$2,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet cluster backs No
Four wallets made nearly $9,900 of coordinated No exposure, alongside a 95.7x volume spike and a broader seven-wallet funding cluster.
- Four wallets put nearly $9,900 behind No, with two buying No around 55¢ and two selling Yes at equivalent No prices of 54–55¢.
- The wallets are linked to a common funder, with seven related wallets identified across prior activity.
- No has since risen to about 62¢, suggesting the coordinated position moved in the predicted direction.
$9,886 on No
Seven-wallet cluster flips to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is backing Yes as the market has risen 30% in one day, with a serial cross-market trader making a fresh directional reversal from a prior No position.
- Seven linked wallets share a funder and have concentrated about $1,258 into this market.
- This serial cross-market trader has participated in 94 markets and is now buying Yes after previously closing a No position.
- Yes was bought at 49¢ during a 30% one-day price rise, signaling meaningful recent momentum.
$1,258 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
New whale scaling into No
An eight-hour-old wallet has committed roughly $24,700 to No, including a fresh $10,000 addition that represented nearly four times the market's 24-hour volume.
- This eight-hour-old wallet has built a roughly $24,700 No position and added another $10,000 across two trades.
- The fresh buying was nearly 400% of the market's reported 24-hour volume, showing unusually strong conviction in a relatively quiet market.
- The wallet has no resolved positions, so there is no proven track record supporting the trade yet.
$10,000 on No
Six-wallet funded cluster favors Yes
Six linked wallets collectively took a sizable position favoring Yes, making this coordinated flow worth monitoring despite the lead wallet's mixed profit-taking history.
- Six wallets sharing a funder moved $6,716 on the same market, a strong coordinated signal.
- The lead wallet has resolved 67% of 113 bets and is up about $79,800, though its average winning entry of 93% limits the evidence of exceptional edge.
- The two No sales translate to buying Yes around 17¢ and 37¢, with the market now pricing Yes at 36%.
$6,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $30,177 (53% win rate)
- 0x71b5...1231 — No, $24,273 (100% win rate)
- 0x48ee...008c — Yes, $21,099 (38% win rate)
- 0xc701...920e — No, $20,782 (32% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $20,449 (51% win rate)
- 0xdf1c...2ebb — No, $20,000 (94% win rate)
- 0x82da...da33 — Yes, $19,548 (71% win rate)
- 0x38f5...6824 — Yes, $18,189 (45% win rate)
- 0x4c1a...8985 — No, $16,080
- 0x8bfe...c44d — No, $15,866 (70% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran ceasefire holds through December
Covers 7 related markets
Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses
Covers 2 related markets
Ceasefire holds through August
Covers 15 related markets
Iran blockade likely persists through 2026
Covers 9 related markets
Neither party controls the Senate
Covers 2 related markets
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
Covers 4 related markets
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
Covers 3 related markets
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran talks won't happen
Covers 7 related markets
