Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce the agreement or if credible reporting confirms a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $3,015 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,015.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the individual bet size is moderate.

  • This bettor has a long record: 834 resolved markets, 62% wins, and $320K lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $428K tracked across 49 markets, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style.
  • Entry at 54¢ on No implies they see the ceasefire deadline as less likely than current market odds suggest.

$3,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $5,584 (62% win rate)
  2. 0xa8b3...4484 No, $4,901 (58% win rate)
  3. 0x28c3...da06 Yes, $3,000 (72% win rate)
  4. 0xe74b...ee88 Yes, $2,665 (52% win rate)
  5. 0x1e0d...bd03 Yes, $2,158
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,000 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x9f08...73a8 Yes, $1,727 (81% win rate)
  8. 0xefde...783d No, $1,129 (51% win rate)
  9. 0x725b...f2e9 Yes, $1,087
  10. 0x79a8...bb66 Yes, $1,000

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

231dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$3,015 tracked1 signalUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
46¢
No
55¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
60¢
57¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

2h ago

$3,015 on No at 54¢

54¢55¢1¢

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