Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
37 signals across 1 market · $181,933 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to “normal” levels, based on IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $2,868 in smart money activity and a recent signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 7-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
$1,540Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.0 - 7-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
$3,304Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.0 - 7-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
$5,871Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.0 - 7-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
$1,761Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.0 - Coordinated wallets rotate into Yes
Three wallets deployed $10.2K toward Yes amid a 72.9x volume spike, including a highly profitable bettor adding to an existing Yes position.
$12,477Score: 6.5 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$2,600Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$1,320Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$1,080Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$2,984Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Four-wallet coordinated No buying
Four wallets committed $22,067 to No, including a profitable bettor with an 84% win rate, though the long-dated market and existing positions temper the signal.
$22,067Score: 6.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf55927…f462$33,441 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 91% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$26,245 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$20,993 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xe8c582…7a13$18,539 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 87% wins
- 0x6404bf…f250$12,476 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x79c57d…a78e$9,066 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$9,065 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xee318a…4735$3,118 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 95% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$2,868 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x6af72a…5a6f$2,120 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect whether traders think IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of 60 or more ship arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline.
What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls, or “Arrivals of Ships,” equal to or above 60 for any date through December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,868 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Which ships count for this market?
The market uses IMF Portwatch data and includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch do not count.
When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market can resolve early if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or above 60. If that does not happen, it resolves after the December 31, 2026 deadline.