Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
19 signals across 1 market · $72,392 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to “normal” levels, based on IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $2,868 in smart money activity and a recent signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$2,984Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$2,600Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$1,080Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
$1,320Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Sharp-backed No cluster
Four wallets are collectively buying No, including one bettor with an 82% resolved-bet record and $64k lifetime profit, though the flow is modest relative to market liquidity.
$5,890Score: 4.5 - 81% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% record and positive lifetime P&L bought nearly $12k of Yes, a large share of recent volume.
$11,956Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 4.4 - Proven sharp fading consensus
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the consensus by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
$2,670Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 4.0 - Proven sharp fading consensus
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the consensus by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
$6,367Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 4.0 - 90% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$334k P&L bought $8k of No at 19¢.
$8,045Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market wallet with a long record is taking a contrarian No position on a geopolitics/shipping market.
$2,868Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8597ca…daee$20,993 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xe8c582…7a13$18,539 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$8,045 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$7,984 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x79c57d…a78e$4,506 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 87% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$2,868 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,987 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$1,581 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect whether traders think IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of 60 or more ship arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline.
What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls, or “Arrivals of Ships,” equal to or above 60 for any date through December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,868 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Which ships count for this market?
The market uses IMF Portwatch data and includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch do not count.
When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market can resolve early if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or above 60. If that does not happen, it resolves after the December 31, 2026 deadline.