Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether the Strait of Hormuz will record a 7-day average of at least 60 daily transit calls by December 31, 2026. It uses IMF Portwatch’s “Arrivals of Ships” data, covering tanker, container, dry bulk, and other cargo vessels; current market odds were not included in the supplied metadata.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

37 smart money signals detected, totaling $184,886.

Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought Yes despite the alert’s low composite score.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $1,039 on $9,816 invested.
  • They bought $2.1K of Yes at 80¢, implying confidence that traffic normalizes before the 2026 deadline.
  • The market has strong liquidity and has moved up 4.5% recently, supporting the direction of the trade.

$4,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

91% winner adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate is adding another $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $899,059 across 320 bets.
  • They are adding $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢ despite the market falling 16% over the past week.
  • The trader has participated across 494 markets and 393 events, indicating substantial and repeatable market experience.

$13,441 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% winner adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate is adding another $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $899,059 across 320 bets.
  • They are adding $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢ despite the market falling 16% over the past week.
  • The trader has participated across 494 markets and 393 events, indicating substantial and repeatable market experience.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% winner adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate is adding another $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $899,059 across 320 bets.
  • They are adding $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢ despite the market falling 16% over the past week.
  • The trader has participated across 494 markets and 393 events, indicating substantial and repeatable market experience.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$14,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

91% winner adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate is adding another $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $899,059 across 320 bets.
  • They are adding $10,000 to an existing Yes position at 46¢ despite the market falling 16% over the past week.
  • The trader has participated across 494 markets and 393 events, indicating substantial and repeatable market experience.

$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

7-wallet funded cluster

A wallet from a 7-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the single trade is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • A 7-wallet group sharing the same funder is positioned around this market.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing No bet, now with about $19.2k committed at roughly 40–42¢.
  • The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 4 points today and 7 points this week.

$5,871 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

90% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$334k P&L bought $8k of No at 19¢.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $334k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 39 events with $316k in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven approach.
  • The $8k No buy at 19¢ goes against the market’s 80% Yes pricing and offers about 5x payout if right.

$1,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp bettor scaling into No

A proven 81% win-rate trader with a substantial positive edge is adding to an existing No position at 53 cents.

  • This bettor has won 81% of 37 resolved trades and is up nearly $30,000.
  • They are adding $2,120 to an existing $5,000 No position at 53¢, signaling continued conviction.
  • The trader has participated across 41 markets and 37 events, showing an established track record rather than a one-off bet.

$2,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Linked cluster rotating into Yes

A linked-wallet cluster deployed $18.8K toward Yes, with a 20.8x volume spike and several established profitable traders rotating out of No.

  • Four wallets moved $18,805 toward Yes, with two linked through a shared funder and six related wallets identified overall.
  • The activity coincided with a 20.8x historical volume spike while Yes traded near 52–54¢.
  • Several traders sold No positions bought around 31–35¢, so part of the signal is profitable rotation rather than entirely fresh conviction.

$15,430 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x6139...6b7a No, $377,113 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $209,370 (62% win rate)
  3. 0x2e0b...8070 No, $170,096 (88% win rate)
  4. 0x0c0e...434e No, $115,606 (64% win rate)
  5. 0xce1d...1b9b Yes, $115,000 (61% win rate)
  6. 0x57e7...b491 Yes, $92,415
  7. 0x1a3f...6dea No, $83,494 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xa91e...09e0 Yes, $75,823 (53% win rate)
  9. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $71,000 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $66,246 (64% win rate)

Related Theses

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran deal in early June

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran peace deal comes early

Covers 11 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

128dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$184,886 tracked37 signalsshipsEconomyIran CeasefiretransitIranPoliticsHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzU.S. x Iran
Yes
31¢
No
69¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
72¢
62¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

2d ago

$4,560 on Yes at 80¢

80¢31¢49¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

3d ago

$13,441 on Yes at 46¢

46¢31¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

6d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 46¢

46¢31¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

8d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 46¢

46¢31¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10d ago

$14,300 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10d ago

$10,000 on Yes at 46¢

46¢31¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12d ago

$5,871 on No at 42¢

42¢69¢27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12d ago

$1,020 on No at 19¢

19¢69¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

22d ago

$2,120 on No at 53¢

53¢69¢16¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

2d ago

$15,430 on Yes at 53¢

53¢31¢22¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

36d ago

$1,761 on No at 42¢

42¢69¢27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

39d ago

$1,478 on Yes at 82¢

82¢31¢51¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

41d ago

$1,540 on No at 42¢

42¢69¢27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

41d ago

$3,304 on No at 42¢

42¢69¢27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

44d ago

$1,092 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

46d ago

$2,870 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

52d ago

$1,640 on Yes at 82¢

82¢31¢51¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

4d ago

$22,067 on No at 65¢

65¢69¢4¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

53d ago

$8,045 on No at 19¢

19¢69¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

56d ago

$2,962 on Yes at 81¢

81¢31¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

63d ago

$2,600 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

64d ago

$1,080 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

64d ago

$6,367 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

64d ago

$7,161 on Yes at 81¢

81¢31¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

64d ago

$4,781 on Yes at 81¢

81¢31¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

64d ago

$2,610 on Yes at 81¢

81¢31¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

65d ago

$2,984 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

65d ago

$1,320 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

68d ago

$2,670 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

71d ago

$2,355 on Yes at 80¢

80¢31¢49¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

72d ago

$1,024 on Yes at 81¢

81¢31¢50¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

72d ago

$2,151 on Yes at 80¢

80¢31¢49¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

73d ago

$1,987 on Yes at 79¢

79¢31¢48¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

79d ago

$11,956 on Yes at 75¢

75¢31¢44¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

102d ago

$1,581 on No at 24¢

24¢69¢45¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

59d ago

$5,890 on No at 11¢

11¢69¢58¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

103d ago

$2,868 on No at 20¢

20¢69¢49¢

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