Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026. The market covers major ship categories including tankers, container ships, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, and general cargo, and resolves as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data. PolySpotter is tracking $2,962 in smart money activity, including a sharp-backed No cluster.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $64,347.

Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Proven winner re-enters YES

Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
  • The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.

$2,962 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$2,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$1,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sharp fading consensus

A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the consensus by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 598 bets and is up $73,658 lifetime.
  • They are betting against the 90% consensus by effectively buying No at 11¢.
  • This wallet has traded across 43 related markets and 30 events, showing a repeated cross-market edge.

$6,367 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Proven winner re-enters YES

Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
  • The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.

$7,161 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven winner re-enters YES

Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
  • The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.

$4,781 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven winner re-enters YES

Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
  • The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.

$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$2,984 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
  • They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.

$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sharp fading consensus

A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the consensus by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 598 bets and is up $73,658 lifetime.
  • They are betting against the 90% consensus by effectively buying No at 11¢.
  • This wallet has traded across 43 related markets and 30 events, showing a repeated cross-market edge.

$2,670 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $132,772 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xe472...e7eb Yes, $65,124 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xc040...beac No, $61,638 (46% win rate)
  4. 0x6139...6b7a No, $60,411 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xab8f...06d6 No, $59,807 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x7bb2...682c No, $57,569 (67% win rate)
  7. 0xcd71...d127 No, $50,000 (80% win rate)
  8. 0x5c14...cc49 No, $46,977 (86% win rate)
  9. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $45,000 (72% win rate)
  10. 0x5739...5f1a No, $43,662 (55% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran deal in early June

Covers 9 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal comes early

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

181dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$64,347 tracked18 signalsshipsEconomyIran CeasefiretransitIranPoliticsHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzU.S. x Iran
Yes
84¢
No
17¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
91¢
85¢
79¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

3d ago

$2,962 on Yes at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

9d ago

$2,600 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11d ago

$1,080 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11d ago

$6,367 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11d ago

$7,161 on Yes at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11d ago

$4,781 on Yes at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11d ago

$2,610 on Yes at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12d ago

$2,984 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12d ago

$1,320 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

15d ago

$2,670 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

18d ago

$2,355 on Yes at 80¢

80¢84¢4¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

19d ago

$1,024 on Yes at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

19d ago

$2,151 on Yes at 80¢

80¢84¢4¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

20d ago

$1,987 on Yes at 79¢

79¢84¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

26d ago

$11,956 on Yes at 75¢

75¢84¢9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

49d ago

$1,581 on No at 24¢

24¢17¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

6d ago

$5,890 on No at 11¢

11¢17¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

50d ago

$2,868 on No at 20¢

20¢17¢3¢

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran deal in early June
Wallet_0x08458 trades 9 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal comes early
Wallet_0xa8c63 trades 11 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…