Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to “normal” by reaching a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls in IMF Portwatch data before December 31, 2026. The market covers arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, and resolves Yes as soon as the threshold is published. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,374 in smart money on this market, including a recent NO signal from a profitable macro bettor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,242.
Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Profitable macro bettor backs NO
Three wallets are leaning No, led by a major profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.66M lifetime profit, making a coordinated directional bet against the 79% favorite.
- A bettor up $1.66M lifetime is buying No and has traded across 80 related markets.
- Three wallets put $5.4K on the same No view while the market still prices Yes around 79%.
- The No entry near 20¢ implies a contrarian ~5x payoff if Hormuz traffic does not reach the threshold.
$5,374 on No
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market wallet with a long record is taking a contrarian No position on a geopolitics/shipping market.
- This bettor is up $1.66M lifetime across 910 resolved bets.
- They have traded 79 markets across 50 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market research edge.
- Buying No at 20¢ goes against the 79% Yes consensus and offers a clear contrarian setup.
$2,868 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $14,416 (64% win rate)
- 0xe2b1...7d2a — No, $8,598 (45% win rate)
- 0x709a...7e39 — Yes, $7,057
- 0x8f2f...b226 — Yes, $5,000 (65% win rate)
- 0x28c3...da06 — Yes, $5,000 (72% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $5,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xcaab...24dd — Yes, $4,281 (78% win rate)
- 0x3e0a...b9cc — Yes, $2,329 (73% win rate)
- 0x843d...fb93 — No, $2,089
- 0x5ccf...79d7 — No, $1,738 (68% win rate)
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