Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026. The market covers major ship categories including tankers, container ships, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, and general cargo, and resolves as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data. PolySpotter is tracking $2,962 in smart money activity, including a sharp-backed No cluster.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $64,347.
Categories: ships, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, transit, Iran, Politics, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Proven winner re-enters YES
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
- The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.
$2,962 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$2,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$1,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven sharp fading consensus
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the consensus by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 598 bets and is up $73,658 lifetime.
- They are betting against the 90% consensus by effectively buying No at 11¢.
- This wallet has traded across 43 related markets and 30 events, showing a repeated cross-market edge.
$6,367 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven winner re-enters YES
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
- The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.
$7,161 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven winner re-enters YES
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
- The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.
$4,781 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven winner re-enters YES
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market already trading at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $19.7k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 81¢.
- The market has strong recent momentum, with Yes up 7.5 points in the past day.
$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$2,984 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $810k profit and extensive cross-market history is taking the contrarian No side despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $810k lifetime.
- They have traded 183 markets across 66 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 11¢ goes against the 90% Yes market and offers a high-upside contrarian entry.
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven sharp fading consensus
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the consensus by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 598 bets and is up $73,658 lifetime.
- They are betting against the 90% consensus by effectively buying No at 11¢.
- This wallet has traded across 43 related markets and 30 events, showing a repeated cross-market edge.
$2,670 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $132,772 (64% win rate)
- 0xe472...e7eb — Yes, $65,124 (82% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — No, $61,638 (46% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $60,411 (70% win rate)
- 0xab8f...06d6 — No, $59,807 (100% win rate)
- 0x7bb2...682c — No, $57,569 (67% win rate)
- 0xcd71...d127 — No, $50,000 (80% win rate)
- 0x5c14...cc49 — No, $46,977 (86% win rate)
- 0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $45,000 (72% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $43,662 (55% win rate)
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