Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
5 signals across 1 market · $18,696 tracked · resolves Jul 7, 2026
This prediction market tracks whether IMF Portwatch shows Strait of Hormuz ship traffic returning to normal levels by July 7, based on a 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching at least 60. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, while PolySpotter has flagged a sharp No buy from a wallet with a 95% win rate.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable wallets buying No
Three profitable high-volume wallets bought No together during a 48x volume spike on a geopolitically driven shipping market.
$10,951Score: 10.3 - 95% win-rate sharp buys No
A highly profitable 95% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought No on a thin Strait of Hormuz market.
$1,345Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 10.0 - New repeat whale buying YES
A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - 5-day repeat bettor buying Yes
A 5-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profit is adding $3.2k to Yes on a geopolitically sensitive shipping market.
$3,200Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - New repeat whale buying YES
A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.
$1,200Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x3bef4e…d6e2$6,400 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$1,345 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
The live Polymarket odds reflect the market-implied probability that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the July 7 resolution deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,345 in smart money activity on this event, including a recent alert that a 95% win-rate sharp bought No.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
It resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves No.
What ships count toward the Strait of Hormuz traffic metric?
The market uses IMF Portwatch’s “Arrivals of Ships” data, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are not counted.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz traffic?
The Strait of Hormuz is a key global shipping and energy chokepoint, so changes in transit calls can signal geopolitical risk, disruption, or a return to normal trade flows.