Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
6 signals across 4 markets · $9,970 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2028
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Tesla and SpaceX officially announce a merger or acquisition by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, and PolySpotter has flagged smart money activity leaning toward NO, including a recent 93% winner buying NO.
Markets (4)
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?1 signal · $3,000 tracked
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?2 signals · $2,942 tracked
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?2 signals · $2,837 tracked
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?1 signal · $1,192 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial cross-market trader
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader placed a sizeable Yes bet in a market with very low recent volume, though the wallet’s win rate is close to its average winning entry price.
$1,396Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.2 - Profitable serial trader takes thin-market Yes
A highly active, historically profitable trader bought Yes in a thin market, with the position representing about 76% of its 24-hour volume as odds have risen.
$1,192Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.5 - New wallet scaling into No
The wallet is adding a sizable No bet in a quiet market, though its limited track record does not establish a clear edge.
$1,441Wallet win rate: 57%Score: 3.1 - Whale adds to existing YES position
The trader added $3,000 to an existing YES position in a thin market, making a substantial, conviction-backed bet despite no clear track-record edge.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 3.1 - 93% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on the Tesla/SpaceX merger market at 75¢.
$1,117Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 3.0 - 93% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on the Tesla/SpaceX merger market at 75¢.
$1,825Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 1.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xd5b97d…e44e$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 58% wins
- 0x760907…6c4e$2,942 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 81% wins
- 0x6a1084…34b2$1,441 · 1 market · 1 alert · 57% wins
- 0x17b8dd…d5d1$1,396 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x5b6331…11a4$1,192 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Tesla and SpaceX merger announcement?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing whether Tesla and SpaceX will officially announce a merger or acquisition by December 31, 2026. Check the market price for the current implied probability.
What is the smart money doing on this Tesla-SpaceX merger market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,117 in smart money activity across this event. The latest signal highlighted a 93% winner buying NO, suggesting that tracked sharp money is currently skeptical of an official merger announcement by the deadline.
What would make this market resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces that one company will acquire or merge with the other by the listed deadline. The announcement can qualify even if the deal has not yet closed.
When does the Tesla and SpaceX merger market resolve?
This event is scheduled around the December 31, 2026 deadline. If no qualifying official announcement is made by then, the market is expected to resolve No.