Part of: US-Iran deal text released by...?

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

This Polymarket market asks whether any portion of the written US-Iran agreement announced on June 14, 2026 will be made widely available to the public by the deadline. The market tracks live prediction odds and has $1,680 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts including a 97% serial cross-market winner and an 88% winner flipping Yes. It is scheduled to resolve on June 18, 2026 at 03:59 UTC based on the market rules.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,134.

Categories: Geopolitics, Peace Deal, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

88% winner flips Yes

Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate flipped into Yes ahead of a fast-moving diplomatic-news market.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 22¢ and the market has already moved to 35¢, suggesting the trade caught early momentum.
  • This is a serial cross-market trader across 30 events with $220K flagged in similar positioning.

$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

97% serial cross-market winner

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 97% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $4.5k of No near current market odds.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 1,845 resolved bets and is up $33.8k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 96 events with $667k in flagged cross-market volume.
  • The $4.5k No buy at 90¢ aligns with a market already pricing No around 92¢.

$4,454 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $8,556 (63% win rate)
  2. 0xf0d5...c665 Yes, $8,488 (88% win rate)
  3. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $8,135 (54% win rate)
  4. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $7,732 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x9a3f...914a No, $6,500 (58% win rate)
  6. 0x9453...1a48 Yes, $5,876 (55% win rate)
  7. 0x4699...e03c No, $5,619 (97% win rate)
  8. 0xfd66...fb6d Yes, $5,000 (22% win rate)
  9. 0xd426...334a Yes, $4,951 (42% win rate)
  10. 0x1d66...928f No, $4,837 (76% win rate)

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Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

21hUS-Iran deal text released by...?$6,134 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsPeace DealU.S. x IranIranPolitics
Yes
21¢
No
80¢

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
94¢
77¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

1h ago

$1,680 on Yes at 22¢

22¢21¢1¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

4h ago

$4,454 on No at 90¢

90¢80¢10¢

Related Theses