US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
5 signals across 1 market · $8,381 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This event tracks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual nuclear agreement by July 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome on Polymarket, while PolySpotter has flagged a profitable new wallet buying No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp serial trader buys Yes
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k P&L is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.
$1,137Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Sharp serial trader buys Yes
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k P&L is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.
$1,798Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Profitable new wallet buying No
A 15-day-old wallet with repeat large flagged bets and early profits is adding a $3.3k No position on a politically meaningful market.
$3,272Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
$1,080Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 3.0 - Proven politics bettor buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 79% historical win rate and +$91.7k P&L bought Yes on a politically meaningful market before a continued move higher.
$1,095Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x79cd52…079b$3,272 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$2,935 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x59432f…2ef2$1,095 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$1,080 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
The event market prices whether an official US-Iran nuclear agreement will be announced before the deadline. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket odds along with smart money activity across the Yes and No sides.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has detected one smart money signal in this event, with a profitable new wallet buying No. Total tracked smart money activity across the event is $3,272.
What has to happen for this market to resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutual agreement related to Iranian nuclear research or nuclear weapon development by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
When does the US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve?
The listed resolution deadline is July 31, 2026. If no qualifying official agreement is reached by then, the market is expected to resolve No.