Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $3,272 in smart money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable wallet buying No. Follow the live market to see how traders price the chances of a US-Iran nuclear deal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,272.
Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet buying No
A 15-day-old wallet with repeat large flagged bets and early profits is adding a $3.3k No position on a politically meaningful market.
- This 15-day-old wallet has already made 5 positions and is up $1,089 so far.
- The bettor has been flagged 3 times for large new-wallet bets, totaling $9,658 in notable activity.
- Entry at 58¢ suggests a confident view that a US-Iran nuclear deal is less likely than the market implies.
$3,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
