Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,381.

Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Politics, Peace Deal, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Sharp serial trader buys Yes

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k P&L is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590k lifetime.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with 160 markets traded across 54 events.
Yes has already moved up 30 points this week, and this buy adds to the pro-deal momentum.

$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven politics bettor buying Yes

Sharp wallet with a 79% historical win rate and +$91.7k P&L bought Yes on a politically meaningful market before a continued move higher.

This bettor has won 79% of 238 resolved bets and is up $91.7k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 73¢, and the market has already moved to about 80¢.
The market is showing strong momentum, up 42.5 points over the past week.

$1,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp serial trader buys Yes

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k P&L is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590k lifetime.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with 160 markets traded across 54 events.
Yes has already moved up 30 points this week, and this buy adds to the pro-deal momentum.

$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.

This bettor has won 64% of 1,626 resolved trades and is up $242,871 lifetime.
They have traded across 387 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
Yes has jumped 29 percentage points in the past day, and this trade follows that momentum at 60¢.

$1,080 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable new wallet buying No

A 15-day-old wallet with repeat large flagged bets and early profits is adding a $3.3k No position on a politically meaningful market.

This 15-day-old wallet has already made 5 positions and is up $1,089 so far.
The bettor has been flagged 3 times for large new-wallet bets, totaling $9,658 in notable activity.
Entry at 58¢ suggests a confident view that a US-Iran nuclear deal is less likely than the market implies.

$3,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%