US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
71 signals across 2 markets · $294,085 tracked · resolves Apr 22, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether the United States and Iran will officially extend their two-week ceasefire by the April 21–22, 2026 deadlines. Traders are pricing several closely related outcomes, including April 21 and April 22 extension markets, while PolySpotter is tracking $294,085 in smart-money activity across 71 signals.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 5-wallet ceasefire bear cluster
Five wallets piled into the same bearish ceasefire view during a major volume spike and sharp repricing, creating a copyable No setup despite mixed individual track records.
$14,553Score: 28.8 - 6-wallet ceasefire NO cluster
Six wallets piled into No as the market swung sharply, led by one bettor with a strong 69% win rate and several traders expressing the same ceasefire thesis across related Iran markets.
$12,942Score: 27.5 - 19-wallet geopolitics cluster
A highly profitable serial event trader with an 88% win rate joined a 19-wallet linked cluster buying Yes into a major volume spike, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth watching despite near-term adverse price movement.
$1,232Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 18.9 - 19-wallet sharp cluster
A proven sharp trader with an 86% win rate joined a 19-wallet linked cluster buying Yes into a major volume spike, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth surfacing despite the price moving against the entry.
$1,110Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 18.9 - 19-wallet cluster buying Yes
Surface this because a profitable serial cross-market trader in a 19-wallet funded cluster is re-entering on Yes alongside coordinated buying, despite already having traded this market before.
$3,417Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 18.6 - 19-wallet Yes cluster
A proven 82% win-rate trader re-entered Yes alongside a 19-wallet one-sided cluster after previously closing a larger position, making this coordinated follow-on bet worth watching despite the recent price drop.
$1,237Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 16.9 - 86% winner joins 20-wallet wave
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor joined a 20-wallet coordinated Yes wave on a major geopolitics market, making this flow worth watching despite the small individual ticket.
$1,812Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 15.8 - 74% winner joins 4-wallet cluster
A proven high-volume bettor with a 74% win rate is reopening and sizing into Yes alongside 3 other wallets, creating a notable coordinated thesis despite adverse price movement.
$5,264Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 15.1 - Sharp bettor fading spike
A proven sharp wallet with an 82% win rate sold Yes at 85¢ on a fast-moving geopolitics market, which translates into a contrarian BUY No entry around 15¢ after a large volume and price spike.
$2,537Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 14.6 - 3-wallet longshot Yes cluster
Three wallets piled into the longshot Yes side at 10-15¢ equivalent just after a sharp drop, including one bettor with an 80% win rate and a brand-new wallet sizing up quickly.
$14,336Score: 14.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$34,294 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x5cd0d5…d6aa$20,033 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$17,287 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x15fdd6…cc95$10,318 · 1 market · 1 alert · 99% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$9,220 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x8e5c0c…a68a$8,727 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x46992d…e03c$8,275 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 97% wins
- 0xe8d783…1252$7,459 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 87% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$6,708 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$5,676 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran ceasefire extension odds on Polymarket?
The odds come from Polymarket markets tied to whether an official, mutually agreed extension of the US-Iran ceasefire is announced by the listed deadlines. This hub aggregates the related April 21 and April 22 markets so you can follow the event as a whole.
What is the smart money doing on the US-Iran ceasefire markets?
PolySpotter has tracked 71 smart-money signals totaling $294,085 across this event. Recent alerts show both bearish ceasefire clusters buying NO and a larger 19-wallet cluster buying Yes, suggesting active disagreement among sharp traders.
Which outcomes are being traded in this event?
The child markets focus on whether the US-Iran ceasefire will be extended by April 21, 2026 or April 22, 2026. Each market resolves based on whether there is a public, mutually agreed extension or qualifying new agreement by the specified deadline.
When does the US-Iran ceasefire extension market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by April 22, 2026, with individual child markets tied to their specific April 21 or April 22 deadlines and the official resolution criteria.
What would make the market resolve Yes?
A market resolves Yes if the United States and Iran officially announce a mutually agreed extension of the April 7 ceasefire, or a qualifying new agreement scheduled to take effect before or at the initial ceasefire’s expiration, by that market’s deadline.