This bettor wins 84% of their resolved trades and is profitable overall. They bought No at 76¢ after the Yes side fell 50 points over the past week. The market is seeing unusual activity, with volume running 10.9x its normal pace.

Five wallets put $12.6k on the same side, pointing to coordinated conviction on Yes. This bettor has a long track record across 121 markets with a 67% win rate and $251k profit. The trade came during an 11.9x volume spike, and selling No at 56¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 44¢.

Part of: US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

36 smart money signals detected, totaling $155,852.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Trump, Politics

Notable Trades

28-0 geopolitics specialist

A serial cross-market trader with a perfect 28-0 resolved record put $10.3k into No at 86¢ on a major geopolitics market after a sharp drop in ceasefire-extension odds.

This bettor has won 28 of 28 resolved markets and has traded across 35 related markets with over $1.0M deployed
They bought No at 86¢ after the market fell 21 points in a day and 60 points in a week, backing continued breakdown in ceasefire odds
The bet is meaningful at $10.3k, though it was placed in a very liquid market so the main edge is the trader's track record

$10,318 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

84% winner buying No

A bettor with an 84% win rate bought No into heavy market volume after a sharp weekly drop, suggesting followable conviction despite only a moderate composite score.

This bettor wins 84% of their resolved trades and is profitable overall.
They bought No at 76¢ after the Yes side fell 50 points over the past week.
The market is seeing unusual activity, with volume running 10.9x its normal pace.

$5,197 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cluster buyer

An experienced cross-market trader with $1.3M in profit joined an 8-wallet one-sided wave buying Yes, which stands out despite this being a modest-sized add in a liquid market.

This bettor has won 64% of 889 resolved trades and is up $1.3M lifetime.
Eight wallets all bought Yes in the same market, putting $17.3k behind the same view.
This trade added to a prior Yes position around 44¢ even after the market fell sharply over the last week.

$1,846 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

19-wallet cluster buying Yes

Surface this because a profitable serial cross-market trader in a 19-wallet funded cluster is re-entering on Yes alongside coordinated buying, despite already having traded this market before.

This wallet wins 71% of resolved bets and is up about $279k across 380 settled markets.
Nineteen linked wallets share the same funder, and 6 wallets bought the same side here for nearly $17.7k total.
This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 43¢, after the wallet had previously closed a larger Yes position in this market.

$3,417 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

5-wallet Yes cluster

A proven high-volume cross-market bettor re-entered on Yes alongside 4 other wallets during a major volume spike, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this being a very liquid market.

Five wallets put $12.6k on the same side, pointing to coordinated conviction on Yes.
This bettor has a long track record across 121 markets with a 67% win rate and $251k profit.
The trade came during an 11.9x volume spike, and selling No at 56¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 44¢.

$2,443 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

3-wallet ceasefire YES wave

A very new wallet joined a 3-wallet one-sided wave into Yes on a major geopolitics market during a strong volume spike, making this coordinated directional flow worth watching despite the wallet's weak standalone track record.

Three wallets bought the same side for about $4.5k total as volume ran 23x above normal.
This wallet is less than 1 day old but has already placed 9 positions, a pattern that can signal fast, high-conviction deployment.
The trade effectively buys Yes around 39¢ while the market now sits near 46¢, showing the move already pushed in their favor.

$1,052 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

Coordinated ceasefire buyers

Coordinated buying hit this geopolitics market during a 23x volume spike, and this wallet added a fresh Yes entry at 37¢ that is already marked up to 46¢.

Three wallets bought Yes together for $4.5k during a 23x volume surge in this market.
This wallet has a long cross-market record across 58 related markets and is up about $113k overall.
The buy came at 37¢ and the market is now 46¢, showing the move got immediate follow-through.

$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

86% winner joins 20-wallet wave

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor joined a 20-wallet coordinated Yes wave on a major geopolitics market, making this flow worth watching despite the small individual ticket.

This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $399k across nearly $7.0M wagered.
20 wallets all bought Yes for a combined $88k, including linked funding across 4 wallets, which points to strong shared conviction.
This is a fresh re-entry after previously closing both sides on the market, and the market has seen a 68x volume spike.

$1,812 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp trader in 20-wallet cluster

Surface this: a highly profitable 88% win-rate trader joined a 20-wallet one-sided Yes cluster and bought well below the current price in a major geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up $1.13M lifetime.
20 wallets piled into Yes for $88.5k total, with 4 linked by funding source.
This wallet bought at 39¢ and the market is now 54¢, showing strong early conviction.

$3,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

20-wallet ceasefire cluster

A 20-wallet coordinated cluster is buying Yes into a major geopolitical market during a 68x volume spike, and this wallet joined by selling No at an implied 42¢ despite already being an active profitable cross-market trader.

20 wallets are all betting Yes on this market, with $88.5k total and 4 of them linked to the same funder.
This wallet has traded 36 related markets across 26 events and is up about $109k overall.
They got in at an implied 42¢ by selling No at 58¢, while Yes now trades around 54¢ after a 68x volume surge.

$1,603 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 65622140, $134,093 (80% win rate)
0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 65622140, $54,444 (55% win rate)
0xf4ba...5933 — Outcome 65622140, $36,000 (60% win rate)
0x6bab...1292 — Outcome 65622140, $27,324 (58% win rate)
0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 65622140, $23,000 (98% win rate)
0xcf60...47ce — Outcome 65622140, $18,427 (53% win rate)
0xdaef...54e9 — Outcome 65622140, $17,101 (64% win rate)
0x2606...aadd — Outcome 65622140, $11,983 (67% win rate)
0x9478...63f5 — Outcome 65622140, $10,000 (49% win rate)
0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 65622140, $10,000 (44% win rate)

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US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran ceasefire extended by...?$155,852 tracked36 signalsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireMiddle EastU.S. x IranIranTrumpPolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.