US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
3005 signals across 13 markets · $22,998,247 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether the United States and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by several deadlines in 2026, ranging from April 22 through December 31. Traders are pricing the odds across each date-specific outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $3.7M+ in smart money activity and recent clusters including sharp No buying and a linked Yes cluster.
Markets (13)
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?485 signals · $7,396,130 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?767 signals · $6,273,259 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?608 signals · $3,262,300 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?157 signals · $1,053,854 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?222 signals · $1,046,325 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?182 signals · $1,014,633 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?185 signals · $926,544 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?188 signals · $876,696 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?122 signals · $711,669 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?28 signals · $202,449 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?34 signals · $132,869 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?20 signals · $83,633 tracked
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?7 signals · $17,885 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 122-wallet linked Yes surge
Massive coordinated Yes flow from 122 wallets, including linked funder groups and several strong historical bettors, drove a major price and volume breakout.
$1,719,093Score: 420.9 - 65-wallet linked YES surge
Massive coordinated bullish flow from 65 wallets, including linked funders and experienced cross-market traders, drove a sharp price and volume breakout.
$873,341Score: 281.1 - 19-wallet linked Yes cluster
A 19-wallet linked cluster put nearly $75k into Yes around 10¢ across this event, with several wallets showing strong cross-market track records and one repeat new wallet adding meaningful size.
$74,838Score: 66.0 - Sharp cross-market YES cluster
Surface: five-wallet one-sided YES flow includes multiple highly profitable bettors and serial cross-market traders positioning across the same event.
$13,819Score: 46.8 - Proven sharps buying longshot YES
Four wallets bought the contrarian Yes side, including two highly profitable bettors with long track records and broad cross-market positioning on the same event.
$13,635Score: 41.5 - Six-wallet contrarian No cluster
Six wallets with profitable histories are collectively buying No after a major Yes rally, with repeated cross-market positioning across the same US-Iran event.
$28,429Score: 38.2 - 9-wallet No cluster
High-conviction 9-wallet cluster is buying No on a major geopolitical market, with two profitable high-win-rate wallets participating and the price already moving in their favor.
$20,872Score: 36.8 - 4-wallet geopolitics NO cluster
Four wallets with solid historical results piled into NO on the same geopolitics market, including one bettor winning 82% of resolved trades, making this coordinated directional flow worth following despite the market being liquid.
$6,228Score: 36.5 - 14-wallet linked NO cluster
A large 14-wallet cluster, including linked wallets and several profitable high-volume traders, is buying No after a sharp price move in an active geopolitical market.
$61,318Score: 34.4 - 81% winner leads Yes cluster
High-conviction Yes flow from five wallets, including an 81% lifetime winner and linked wallets, amid a sharp one-day price move.
$31,648Score: 32.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf39651…ed0d$1,501,704 · 7 markets · 47 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x0f0223…5bfb$1,292,125 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xb2a362…8510$1,060,263 · 4 markets · 11 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x70798a…155d$869,617 · 3 markets · 14 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$785,390 · 9 markets · 158 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x7511ec…a568$588,301 · 7 markets · 40 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$490,173 · 8 markets · 57 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x5d0f03…f0ad$402,574 · 5 markets · 21 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$387,144 · 12 markets · 206 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$344,541 · 8 markets · 61 alerts · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran permanent peace deal odds on Polymarket?
The odds vary by deadline, with separate markets for April, May, June, and December 2026. PolySpotter aggregates the event so you can compare how traders are pricing the chance of a permanent US-Iran peace deal across all listed dates.
What is the smart money doing on the US-Iran peace deal markets?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show several notable No-side clusters, including a 13-wallet No cluster, a 14-wallet sharp No cluster, and an 8-wallet sharp cluster buying No. There has also been a 19-wallet linked Yes cluster, suggesting some organized interest on the Yes side.
What counts as a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran?
The market requires an agreement that explicitly says military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to hostilities.
When does this US-Iran peace deal event resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its own deadline, including April 22, May 13, May 15, May 31, June 30, April 30, and December 31, 2026. If no qualifying permanent peace deal is reached by a given date, that market resolves No.
Where can I track US-Iran peace deal prediction market activity?
PolySpotter tracks the Polymarket event hub, showing odds across all US-Iran peace deal deadline markets along with smart money flows, linked-wallet clusters, and sharp trader activity.