Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,300.
Categories: Trump, Hormuz, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
98% winner buying NO
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making an $8.6k No bet while also positioning across related markets, with recent price action strongly favoring No.
- This bettor has won 55 of 56 resolved bets and is up about $52.8k lifetime.
- They put $8.6k on No and have $10.7k positioned across related markets.
- The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 53.5 points over the past week.
$1,441 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 3-day-old wallet with five repeat large-bet flags is taking a fresh $2.9k NO position in a relatively small shipping market.
- This wallet is only 3 days old but has already made 5 flagged large bets totaling $15.1k.
- The $2.9k NO buy is large for a market with only $7.7k liquidity.
- Entry at 35¢ implies they see the market’s 64% YES price as too high.
$2,860 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 72082175, $5,204 (52% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 72082175, $2,400 (60% win rate)
- 0xe8c5...7a13 — Outcome 72082175, $2,390 (87% win rate)
- 0x5129...add5 — Outcome 72082175, $1,488 (96% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Outcome 72082175, $1,000 (36% win rate)
- 0x524d...4495 — Outcome 72082175, $999 (78% win rate)
- 0x8ac3...16f6 — Outcome 72082175, $900 (99% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 72082175, $831 (50% win rate)
- 0xc6d1...5407 — Outcome 72082175, $786
- 0x90be...c800 — Outcome 72082175, $590
Related Theses
Iran deal in June
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France or Spain win Cup
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US-Iran talks won’t happen by September
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No Iran deal by June
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NATO-Russia Clash Will Not Occur
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Hormuz traffic won’t normalize by August
Covers 1 related market
Iranian blockade continues through August 15
Covers 3 related markets
Iran talks won’t be extended
Covers 1 related market
Brief ceasefire collapses by July 31
Covers 2 related markets
