What is the Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Polymarket market about?

This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed October 2026 FOMC meeting.

When does this Fed rate hike prediction market resolve?

The market is tied to the listed FOMC meeting and has a resolution date of December 9, 2026. It resolves based on whether a qualifying rate hike is announced within the market’s specified window.

What counts as a “Yes” outcome in this market?

A “Yes” outcome occurs if the Fed raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point during the covered period, including a hike announced as part of the listed FOMC meeting.

What counts as a “No” outcome?

The market resolves to “No” if no qualifying increase in the upper bound of the federal funds target range occurs during the specified period.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking for this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $8,772 in smart money and 1 signal for this market. Recent activity includes a profitable serial macro bettor, described as a 93% winner, buying “No.”

Part of: Fed rate hike by...?

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

This prediction market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point from December 16, 2025 through the October 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves after the scheduled FOMC meeting period, with the listed resolution date of December 9, 2026. PolySpotter is currently tracking $8,772 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including a profitable macro bettor buying “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,772.

Categories: fomc, Inflation, Fed, Jerome Powell, Finance, Fed Rates, Economy

Notable Trades

Profitable serial macro bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering No on a Fed hike market while also deploying $51K across related markets.

This bettor is up $708K lifetime and has traded 119 markets across 57 events.
They are making a coordinated macro bet, with $51K placed across 3 related Fed-rate markets.
This is a fresh re-entry into No after previously closing a No position on the same market.

$8,772 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

93% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 93% record and strong edge is buying No on a Fed hike market at 47¢ despite recent price volatility.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $3.2K lifetime.
Their past bets beat market-implied odds by about 35 points on average.
Entry at 47¢ implies they see No as underpriced after a volatile week.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0xae89...90b8 — No, $10,100 (92% win rate)
0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $8,449 (70% win rate)
0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $7,828
0xb8b5...280c — No, $4,116 (34% win rate)
0xe533...ab29 — No, $4,050
0x511c...f090 — No, $3,993
0xeb6f...25f0 — Yes, $3,974 (74% win rate)
0xcaab...24dd — Yes, $3,744 (78% win rate)
0xc91b...93bd — No, $3,405
0xda91...9ffd — Yes, $3,177

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Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

142dFed rate hike by...?$9,772 tracked2 signalsfomcInflationFedJerome PowellFinanceFed RatesEconomy

Yes

45¢

56¢

Yes

45¢

56¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No”

59¢

45¢

31¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction