Fed rate hike by...?
13 signals across 3 markets · $175,555 tracked · resolves Oct 29, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket betting on whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the federal funds target rate by the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around future inflation, jobs data, Jerome Powell’s Fed guidance, and broader macro conditions. PolySpotter has flagged smart money activity, including a 93% winner buying No.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable macro serial trader
High-conviction No bet from a profitable serial cross-market trader with $486k lifetime profit and large size relative to this market’s daily volume.
$44,232Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 10.0 - Profitable macro whale buys NO
Profitable serial cross-market trader put $46k on No in a Fed-rate market, a large position relative to liquidity and recent volume despite some early fills now underwater.
$46,299Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 9.7 - 5-wallet No cluster
Five wallets, including linked and historically active cross-market traders, bought $37K of No into a sharp volume spike and moved the market higher.
$37,111Score: 9.6 - Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.
$2,210Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 9.0 - Serial macro bettor buying NO
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% historical hit rate bought $12.1k of No before a sharp move from 81¢ to 93¢, alongside a major volume spike and linked-wallet activity.
$12,135Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 8.4 - Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering a contrarian Yes position on a Fed hike market at 8¢ despite recent price weakness.
$1,001Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 8.0 - Three-wallet Fed hike push
Three wallets effectively bought Yes around 23¢ on a Fed hike market, led by a profitable high-volume wallet and reinforced by coordinated same-minute flow.
$6,491Score: 7.6 - Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering a contrarian Yes position on a Fed hike market at 8¢ despite recent price weakness.
$6,555Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 7.1 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering No on a Fed hike market while also deploying $51K across related markets.
$8,772Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 6.5 - Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.
$2,066Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 6.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa022ba…77f8$117,462 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xcdb1f1…276c$12,135 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$1,357 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x656152…e3c2$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a Fed rate hike by October 2026?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling Yes and No shares on whether the Fed raises rates by the October 2026 FOMC meeting. PolySpotter tracks the market and highlights notable smart money activity as the probability changes.
What is smart money doing in this Fed rate hike market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,000 in smart money across this event, with a recent alert showing a 93% winner buying No. That suggests at least one historically successful trader is positioning against a Fed hike by the October 2026 meeting.
What outcome does this Fed rate hike event cover?
This event covers whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point from December 16, 2025 through the completion of the listed October 2026 FOMC meeting, including a hike announced at that meeting.
When does the Fed rate hike by October 2026 market resolve?
The event is expected to resolve after the relevant October 2026 FOMC meeting, with the listed resolution date around October 29, 2026, depending on the meeting timing and official Fed announcement.
Why do traders bet Yes or No on a Fed hike?
Yes buyers are usually betting inflation or economic conditions will force the Fed to tighten policy again. No buyers are betting the Fed will hold rates steady or cut instead, with no qualifying hike before the October 2026 meeting.