What is the Iran airspace closure prediction market about?

This market is about whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by June 30, 2026. A qualifying event must be a broad, non-weather-related closure or suspension affecting commercial flights in Iranian airspace or a major Iranian airspace region.

When does the Iran airspace market resolve?

The market resolves after June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the listed resolution timestamp on July 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC. It will resolve to Yes if a qualifying closure occurs during the specified window, and No otherwise.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,266 in smart money tied to this market across 1 signal. Recent alerts show mixed positioning, including an elite bettor joining the Yes cluster, sharp contrarian buying No, and other sharp traders buying Yes.

Where can I track Iran airspace closure odds on Polymarket?

You can follow this market on PolySpotter to monitor Polymarket odds, smart money signals, and alerts related to whether Iran closes its airspace by the June 30 deadline.

Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Q: What counts as a major closure of Iranian airspace?

A major closure generally means a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, or a major Iranian airspace region. Closures solely due to weather conditions do not count.

This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a major non-weather-related closure of its airspace between June 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves after the deadline based on whether a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension affects commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian airspace region. PolySpotter is tracking $1,266 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent sharp buying on both Yes and No.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $56,217.

Categories: Iran, Airspace, Middle East

Notable Trades

93% winner fading spike

Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and +$97k lifetime P&L is fading the airspace-closure move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 37¢.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $97k lifetime.
They are fading a market that just jumped 58 points in a day, selling Yes after the move.
Selling Yes at 63¢ is equivalent to buying No at 37¢.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

88% winner buys Yes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$329k P&L bought Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market after major price movement.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $329k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 32 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
Yes has already jumped 61 percentage points today, and this wallet still bought at 66¢.

$1,598 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Elite bettor joins Yes cluster

Strong Yes-side cluster led by an 88% winner with $329k lifetime profit, on a geopolitically plausible market that has already moved sharply upward.

One wallet in this cluster wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $329k lifetime.
Three wallets put $6.8k on Yes, mostly between 66¢ and 73¢ before the market jumped to 83¢.
The market is moving hard: Yes is up 77.5 points in 24 hours on $345k daily volume.

$6,811 on Yes

88% winner buys Yes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$329k P&L bought Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market after major price movement.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $329k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 32 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
Yes has already jumped 61 percentage points today, and this wallet still bought at 66¢.

$1,033 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

82% serial geopolitical bettor

Surfaced because a highly profitable 82% lifetime bettor with extensive cross-market history bought No despite the market's sharp recent move toward Yes.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $775K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 177 markets, with $3.4M in tracked volume.
They bought No at 59¢ while the market has seen a huge 1-day move, suggesting a contrarian view on the airspace-closure odds.

$1,113 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp cluster buying Yes

Three wallets are collectively buying Yes, including a 98% lifetime winner and a serial cross-market trader, amid a sharp 1-day move in a geopolitically sensitive market.

Three wallets are all taking the same side, with $4.7K going into Yes around 41–47¢.
One wallet has won 98% of 109 resolved bets and is up $18.9K lifetime.
The market has already moved about 40 points in the past day, suggesting this flow is part of a broader momentum move.

$4,736 on Yes

Serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history made a $6.8k effective YES bet on a geopolitical market during a sharp short-term price move.

This bettor has traded 67 related markets across 36 events and has won 63% of 545 resolved bets.
The $6.8k trade is effectively a YES bet at 24¢, above the current market price around 18–20¢.
The market has already moved sharply, with YES up 13 points over the last day.

$1,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history made a $6.8k effective YES bet on a geopolitical market during a sharp short-term price move.

This bettor has traded 67 related markets across 36 events and has won 63% of 545 resolved bets.
The $6.8k trade is effectively a YES bet at 24¢, above the current market price around 18–20¢.
The market has already moved sharply, with YES up 13 points over the last day.

$2,493 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable event specialist fading rally

Profitable serial cross-market bettor is fading a sharp Yes rally by effectively buying No on a geopolitically plausible event market.

This bettor has won 72% of 96 resolved trades and is up $307k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $624k deployed across 57 markets in 29 events.
Selling Yes at 59¢ is effectively buying No at 41¢, a contrarian fade after Yes jumped 59 points in one day.

$1,657 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history made a $6.8k effective YES bet on a geopolitical market during a sharp short-term price move.

This bettor has traded 67 related markets across 36 events and has won 63% of 545 resolved bets.
The $6.8k trade is effectively a YES bet at 24¢, above the current market price around 18–20¢.
The market has already moved sharply, with YES up 13 points over the last day.

$2,182 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

0x4489...7666 — Outcome 40179125, $100,000
0x4214...6c68 — Outcome 40179125, $20,619
0x64a9...7311 — Outcome 40179125, $15,000
0x55dc...78f3 — Outcome 40179125, $13,500
0xa66b...8050 — Outcome 40179125, $12,000
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 40179125, $12,000 (47% win rate)
0xe14f...d959 — Outcome 40179125, $11,000 (57% win rate)
0xd519...932c — Outcome 40179125, $10,033 (18% win rate)
0x1637...69fc — Outcome 40179125, $10,000
0x6b02...e5fc — Outcome 40179125, $10,000 (11% win rate)

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Iran deal by mid-June

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No Iran deal by June

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Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

ResolvedIran closes its airspace by...?$56,217 tracked18 signalsIranAirspaceMiddle East

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”

102¢

54¢

7¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction