Part of: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach an official ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if there is a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the deadline, not just informal de-escalation or backchannel talks. PolySpotter tracks the latest smart money activity on this geopolitical prediction market, with $12,321 in smart money tracked so far.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,986.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon

Notable Trades

Profitable event-thesis bettor

A profitable, high-volume wallet is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across 3 related markets and added a sizable $12.3k position despite the market already moving sharply higher.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 266 resolved trades and is up about $235k lifetime
  • They placed nearly $19.8k across 3 related markets, showing a coordinated view on this event
  • They bought at 84¢ even after the market jumped 17 points in a day, signaling conviction rather than a quick dip buy

$12,321 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Pro cross-market trader flips bullish

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with nearly $1M P&L has flipped from a previously closed No position to a fresh Yes buy as this geopolitical market keeps moving up.

  • This bettor has a strong long-term record: 64% wins across 876 resolved bets and about $954k in profit
  • They trade event clusters repeatedly, with 40 related markets across 29 events and $93k bet across 3 markets in this same event
  • This is a fresh Yes position at 54¢ after previously closing a much larger No stake, suggesting a real view change as odds have risen

$1,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

88% winner fading rally

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate bought NO against a fast-rising ceasefire market, making this a credible sharp contrarian position worth watching.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $380k lifetime.
  • They bought NO at 35¢ while the market had surged 32 points in a week, signaling a sharp contrarian view.
  • The bet came from a trader active across related markets with over $21k placed on the same event thesis.

$1,046 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and $920k in profit just bought Yes at 62¢, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the market being fairly liquid.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
  • They trade across 70 events and 116 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 62¢, below the current 64¢ price, after this market jumped 26 points over the past week

$3,509 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x046b...1868 Outcome 48626160, $22,491
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 48626160, $20,340 (84% win rate)
  3. 0xe70d...9895 Outcome 48626160, $15,826
  4. 0x7412...9dca Outcome 48626160, $7,992
  5. 0x96cd...f6ea Outcome 48626160, $7,112
  6. 0xc1d4...8e51 Outcome 48626160, $6,589
  7. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 48626160, $5,000 (38% win rate)
  8. 0xd7a2...2b21 Outcome 48626160, $4,000
  9. 0x81dd...5f71 Outcome 48626160, $3,900
  10. 0x8fc9...489a Outcome 48626160, $2,000

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

44dIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?$17,986 tracked4 signalsIranIsraelGeopoliticsIran CeasefireLebanon

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Notable Trades

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

30d ago

$12,321 on Yes at 84¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

32d ago

$1,110 on Yes at 54¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

35d ago

$1,046 on No at 35¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

35d ago

$3,509 on Yes at 62¢

Related Theses