Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,145.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor adds to No

A proven bettor with an 81% win rate and strong historical edge is adding to an existing No position despite the market moving against it.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $83,787 lifetime.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction despite No falling from the 65¢ entry to about 53¢.
  • The 65¢ entry implies the bettor viewed No as substantially more likely than the market’s current 53% price.

$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp bettor leads No cluster

Three wallets added $5.7K to No, including a highly profitable bettor with an exceptional 81% win rate and 46% edge over implied odds.

  • The lead bettor wins 81% of 74 resolved trades, is up $83,787, and has a 46% edge over implied odds.
  • Three wallets placed $5,723 on No, showing coordinated conviction despite the market already pricing No at 61%.
  • The positions add to existing No holdings, indicating increased conviction rather than a new speculative entry.

$5,723 on No

Serial sharp bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 78% win rate and strong historical edge is making a fresh $1,122 Yes position at 52¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of trades across 90 resolved positions and is up $139,468 lifetime.
  • Their average winning entry is 44¢, making a 52¢ Yes purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
  • The wallet has traded 40 events and 53 markets, providing a substantial track record behind this position.

$1,122 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $15,576 (62% win rate)
  2. 0xbfe2...1913 No, $12,189 (80% win rate)
  3. 0xc3db...0f98 No, $10,093 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x7a3c...977c No, $7,430 (74% win rate)
  5. 0x524d...4495 Yes, $6,349 (78% win rate)
  6. 0x09cc...421a Yes, $5,467
  7. 0xd6dd...98ee Yes, $5,399
  8. 0x606f...1083 No, $5,331 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x9e72...99c4 Yes, $4,174 (72% win rate)
  10. 0x80a0...5708 No, $4,000 (41% win rate)

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

ResolvedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)$8,145 tracked3 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePolitics
Yes
74¢
No
27¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
79¢
55¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

2d ago

$1,300 on No at 65¢

65¢27¢38¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

2d ago

$5,723 on No at 62¢

62¢27¢35¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

4d ago

$1,122 on Yes at 52¢

52¢74¢22¢

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