What does this Iran-Israel-US conflict prediction market measure?

This market measures whether there will be a continuous 14-day period without qualifying military action involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, beginning any time before the June 30, 2026 deadline.

How does this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to Yes if a qualifying 14-day uninterrupted period without military action starts between market creation and June 30, 2026, and continues through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the last qualifying strike.

What happens if fighting resumes during the 14-day period?

If any qualifying military action occurs during that 14-day window, the streak is broken and the market would not resolve to Yes based on that period. Traders are therefore watching for sustained de-escalation, not just a brief pause.

Why are traders watching this Polymarket closely?

This market sits at the center of major geopolitical and ceasefire speculation involving Iran, Israel, and the US. It also has notable smart money activity, with tracked signals from experienced event and geopolitical traders.

When does the Iran-Israel-US conflict ends by June 30 market resolve?

The market's deadline is June 30, 2026. By that point, there must have been a qualifying 14-day period without military action starting before the cutoff for the market to resolve Yes; otherwise it resolves No.

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

This Polymarket asks whether the Iran-Israel-US conflict will effectively end by June 30, 2026, based on whether a continuous 14-day stretch passes without qualifying military action. Traders are pricing the odds of a ceasefire-style pause or de-escalation before the deadline, making this a closely watched geopolitical prediction market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $82,171.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

13-wallet geopolitical cluster

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader from a 13-wallet funded cluster sold Yes at 61¢, which converts to a copyable No buy at 39¢ in a major geopolitics market.

This wallet wins 69% of resolved bets across 336 markets and is up $55k lifetime
13 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
This trade sold Yes at 61¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 39¢ in a liquid geopolitics market

$3,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

84% win-rate geopolitical bettor

An 84% win-rate wallet with $275k in profit is adding a sizable fresh position on a serious geopolitics market, which is worth surfacing despite the alert being driven by a single cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $275k lifetime.
They just put $8k into Yes at 61¢ on a real-world geopolitics market.
The wallet is betting across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$8,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet, which is notable even though the market itself is liquid and the alert is driven by a single strategy.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 70 settled markets
They are betting across 2 related Iran conflict markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off trade
Bought Yes at 61¢ in a deep market, showing conviction that the ceasefire window is more likely than current pricing implies

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% win-rate event bettor

A proven profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is building a cross-market thesis on a major geopolitics event, making this small add-on trade worth following despite modest size.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $248k lifetime
They have nearly $30k deployed across 2 related conflict markets, showing a broader event thesis
Bought Yes at 58¢ in a very active news-driven market after a 10.5-point one-day move

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% winner adds on conflict market

A profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is building a cross-market thesis on a major geopolitics event, making this small follow-on buy worth surfacing despite only one signal.

This bettor wins 84% of their resolved trades and is up about $248k lifetime.
They have nearly $29.8k positioned across 2 related markets in the same event, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
They bought Yes at 58¢ in a liquid market that has already moved up 11.5 points in the last day.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

97% win-rate event bettor

A bettor with a 97% win rate is building a cross-market thesis on the same conflict event, and this $10k No buy is a clear copyable signal despite the liquid market.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up nearly $39k across 37 settled markets.
They have put $75k across 4 related conflict markets, suggesting a focused event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
Bought No at 41¢, a price that implies they think the market is overestimating a quick end to the conflict.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

84% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is adding a fresh cross-market thesis on a major geopolitics market, which is notable even though the signal mix is limited.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $248k lifetime.
They are betting across 2 related conflict markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
The buy came at 60¢ in a deep, active market, showing measured conviction on a major news-driven event.

$2,670 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A wallet with an 84% win rate and strong event-level positioning bought Yes at 60¢ on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth following.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $248k lifetime
They have been active across multiple related Iran-Israel markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
They bought Yes at 60¢ in a deep, active market, signaling conviction that the conflict cools enough to satisfy the 14-day rule

$6,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% winner, event thesis

A historically strong wallet with an 84% win rate is building a cross-market thesis on a major geopolitics event, making this small add worth watching despite the liquid market.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $248k overall.
They are betting across 3 related Iran-Israel markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
They bought Yes at 61¢ in a major news-driven market that has already moved up 6 points in the last day.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% win-rate bettor

An 84% win-rate wallet with strong realized profits is making a fresh cross-market event bet, which is worth watching despite the modest size and limited signal diversity.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $248k lifetime.
They are betting across 2 related markets in the same conflict event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off click.
They bought Yes at 58¢, close to current pricing, so this looks like steady conviction from a proven trader.

$1,994 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%