Part of: South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,882.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, June 9 Primaries, Republican Primary, South Carolina Primary

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet Yes surge

Seven wallets committed $15,026 to Yes alongside a 29-point price jump, including several profitable bettors, though the market has already repriced to 100%.

Seven wallets bought Yes for $15,026, driving the price up 29 percentage points.
The flow includes a bettor with 83% wins and $1.24 million profit, plus multiple profitable repeat traders.
The signal is largely already realized: Yes now trades at 100%, so a new entry above 95¢ is unattractive.

$15,026 on Yes

Serial sharp bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $4,748 bet against Nordone in a market already falling 10% over one day.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades—156 of 189—and is up $1.24 million.
They placed a fresh $4,748 bet on No at 43%, indicating strong conviction against Nordone.
The Yes price has fallen 10% in one day and 30.5% in a week, supporting the trader’s direction.

$2,599 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Six-wallet cluster adding to No

Six linked wallets and an existing position holder are reinforcing a No position, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader's modest standalone track record.

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, indicating coordinated conviction in this candidate not winning.
This wallet is adding $1,609 to an existing $5,000 No position rather than taking a one-off trade.
The trader has made $82,986 across 149 resolved bets, though its 65% win rate is not especially strong relative to its typical entry prices.

$1,609 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Serial sharp bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $4,748 bet against Nordone in a market already falling 10% over one day.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades—156 of 189—and is up $1.24 million.
They placed a fresh $4,748 bet on No at 43%, indicating strong conviction against Nordone.
The Yes price has fallen 10% in one day and 30.5% in a week, supporting the trader’s direction.

$4,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial sharp bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $4,748 bet against Nordone in a market already falling 10% over one day.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades—156 of 189—and is up $1.24 million.
They placed a fresh $4,748 bet on No at 43%, indicating strong conviction against Nordone.
The Yes price has fallen 10% in one day and 30.5% in a week, supporting the trader’s direction.

$1,512 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial sharp bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $4,748 bet against Nordone in a market already falling 10% over one day.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades—156 of 189—and is up $1.24 million.
They placed a fresh $4,748 bet on No at 43%, indicating strong conviction against Nordone.
The Yes price has fallen 10% in one day and 30.5% in a week, supporting the trader’s direction.

$4,748 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor scaling into funded No cluster

A proven 91% win-rate bettor is adding a large No position through a three-wallet funded cluster in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 20 of 22 resolved positions and earned $202,768 in realized P&L.
They added $7,419 to No at 36¢ while already holding $21,212, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
Three wallets sharing a funder are positioned on the same thesis, and the bet represented over three times the reported 24-hour volume.

$7,419 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 11283676, $62,151 (71% win rate)
0x4c8c...e36f — Outcome 11283676, $36,110 (89% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11283676, $15,320
0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 11283676, $13,162 (43% win rate)
0x2200...0f2d — Outcome 11283676, $5,299 (32% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 11283676, $4,999 (49% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 11283676, $4,628 (82% win rate)
0x3872...bb1d — Outcome 11283676, $2,745
0x43b9...5db9 — Outcome 11283676, $2,554 (87% win rate)
0xd24b...ef76 — Outcome 11283676, $1,482 (76% win rate)

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Ceasefire lasts into October, not December

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Ceasefire comes, collapses, returns

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Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

ResolvedSouth Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner$37,882 tracked7 signalsPoliticsElectionsPrimariesJune 9 PrimariesRepublican PrimarySouth Carolina Primary

The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Price History — “Yes”

102¢

78¢

54¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction