Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether the United States, under Trump, will agree to Iran charging mandatory fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,027 in smart-money activity across 1 signal, including sharp interest in the longshot Yes side. The market resolves Yes only if U.S. acceptance of Iranian tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or similar mandatory payments is established by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,284.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Profitable sharp buying longshot

Surface: a profitable 78% win-rate wallet with prior flags is buying Yes at 15¢ on a geopolitics market while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $8.3K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 15¢, a longshot entry that could pay about 6.7x if correct.
  • The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.

$1,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable cross-market bettor

High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.

  • This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
  • They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
  • The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.

$3,040 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%

Profitable macro regular

Profitable serial cross-market bettor is fading the recent Yes rally with a $7.6k No buy, though the signal is moderate rather than very strong.

  • This bettor is up $268k lifetime across 179 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 103 markets across 43 events, suggesting this is an experienced cross-market operator.
  • The buy backs No at 82¢ after Yes rallied 17 points this week.

$7,611 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable bettor fading rally

Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market No position while fading a sharp Yes rally in an active geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has a long record: 1,129 resolved trades and $54.8K in lifetime profit.
  • They are positioned across 2 related markets with about $5.3K tied to the same event.
  • This is a contrarian entry after Yes jumped about 20 points in the last day.

$1,395 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable cross-market bettor

High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.

  • This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
  • They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
  • The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.

$1,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
  • This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.

$1,993 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
  • This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.

$1,641 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
  • This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.

$2,006 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6000...f302 No, $38,371 (80% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 No, $31,544 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xc040...beac Yes, $25,149 (44% win rate)
  4. 0x80a0...5708 Yes, $19,412 (36% win rate)
  5. 0xbd04...fbb0 Yes, $17,894 (71% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a No, $14,600 (42% win rate)
  7. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $13,776 (64% win rate)
  8. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $12,644 (63% win rate)
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $10,529 (47% win rate)
  10. 0xe17d...7c1a No, $10,001

Related Theses

No US-Iran peace deal

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Trump accepts fees, rejects enrichment

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Iran deal by June end

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US-Iran deal announced soon

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Starmer exits by May 2026

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US-Iran talks in June

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Iran deal after July

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Iran surrenders uranium by June

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Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

12dWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?$20,284 tracked8 signalsStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsIranPoliticsIran CeasefireUraniumTrumpU.S. x IranNegotiation Topics
Yes
13¢
No
87¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Price History — “No
99¢
84¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

1d ago

$1,027 on Yes at 15¢

15¢13¢2¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

1d ago

$3,040 on No at 50¢

50¢87¢37¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

1d ago

$7,611 on No at 82¢

82¢87¢5¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

2d ago

$1,395 on No at 75¢

75¢87¢12¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

2d ago

$1,572 on No at 50¢

50¢87¢37¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

2d ago

$1,993 on Yes at 11¢

11¢13¢2¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

2d ago

$1,641 on Yes at 11¢

11¢13¢2¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

2d ago

$2,006 on Yes at 11¢

11¢13¢2¢

Related Theses