What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
80 signals across 5 markets · $278,891 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether the U.S. under Trump agrees to key Iranian demands by June 30, 2026. The listed market focuses on Iranian oil sanction relief, with PolySpotter highlighting smart money activity from a profitable geopolitics trader.
Markets (5)
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?17 signals · $85,403 tracked
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?15 signals · $64,861 tracked
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?17 signals · $46,270 tracked
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?18 signals · $45,174 tracked
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?13 signals · $37,183 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable wallets fading rally
Four experienced, profitable wallets are collectively fading a sharp Yes rally by buying No or exiting Yes positions, with added support from serial cross-market activity.
$11,930Score: 13.6 - Sharp cluster bought Yes
Five wallets, including several highly profitable serial cross-market traders, bought Yes around 59–61¢ before the market moved to 99¢.
$19,721Score: 11.9 - Profitable serial bettors buying No
Four wallets, including several profitable serial cross-market bettors, are aligned on No despite the market trading near even odds.
$5,738Score: 11.5 - Profitable serial policy bettor
A proven profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought $3.4k of No on a geopolitics market.
$3,400Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 10.0 - 82% winner cross-market pro
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history is effectively buying Yes after strong market momentum.
$1,392Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 9.0 - 75% winner flips bullish
A proven 75% win-rate wallet with $409k lifetime profit and extensive cross-market history sold No, equivalent to backing Yes, despite previously holding the opposite side.
$1,425Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 9.0 - Sharp geopolitical cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% win-rate wallet with $590k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes on a geopolitics market with strong recent momentum.
$1,223Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 9.0 - Profitable cross-market bettor
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
$1,572Wallet win rate: 46%Score: 8.5 - 75% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite recent market volatility.
$7,604Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime profit bought Yes near the end of a fast-moving political market, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration.
$1,031Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x94a428…6356$34,072 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x99518f…11bd$21,097 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$17,684 · 3 markets · 9 alerts · 84% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$16,682 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xbf4d20…33ed$15,205 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x0cb16f…dea6$15,138 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 89% wins
- 0x93511d…9e4d$14,671 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 87% wins
- 0xd426ad…334a$10,812 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 46% wins
- 0xfeee3b…20fb$9,240 · 3 markets · 3 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xf284ad…b9f9$7,687 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump agrees to Iranian demands by June 30?
The event’s odds come from Polymarket trading on related Iran-U.S. negotiation outcomes, currently including whether Trump agrees to Iranian oil sanction relief by the deadline.
What demand is being traded in this Polymarket event?
The child market shown for this event asks whether Trump will agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30, 2026. The broader event is about potential U.S. concessions to Iran.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran-Trump market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,267 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal from a profitable geopolitics regular.
When does this event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether the relevant U.S.-Iran agreement condition is met by June 30, 2026.