Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
13 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,183.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
76% winner exiting No
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate is exiting a No position, which is directionally equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $7.9k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, with $245k total deployed.
- Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to backing Yes at 12¢, while Yes has moved up 8.2 points this week.
$3,279 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market bettor
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
- This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
- They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
- The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
$6,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Million-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No after taking a prior Yes position off, suggesting a shifted thesis despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor has a long track record: 955 resolved bets and $1.16M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 64 events and 116 markets.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 89¢, suggesting a thesis shift.
$5,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
92% winner buying No
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 92% resolved-bet win rate bought No despite the alert itself being only a weak price-impact signal.
- This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades, with 47 wins and 4 losses.
- They are up $8.3k lifetime on $334k invested, making the wallet itself the main signal.
- The trade backs No at 89¢, a high-probability position on a liquid geopolitical market.
$1,109 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Million-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No after taking a prior Yes position off, suggesting a shifted thesis despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor has a long track record: 955 resolved bets and $1.16M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 64 events and 116 markets.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 89¢, suggesting a thesis shift.
$1,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable sharp buying longshot
Surface: a profitable 78% win-rate wallet with prior flags is buying Yes at 15¢ on a geopolitics market while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 15¢, a longshot entry that could pay about 6.7x if correct.
- The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
$1,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable cross-market bettor
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
- This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
- They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
- The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
$3,040 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable macro regular
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is fading the recent Yes rally with a $7.6k No buy, though the signal is moderate rather than very strong.
- This bettor is up $268k lifetime across 179 resolved markets.
- They have traded 103 markets across 43 events, suggesting this is an experienced cross-market operator.
- The buy backs No at 82¢ after Yes rallied 17 points this week.
$7,611 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable bettor fading rally
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market No position while fading a sharp Yes rally in an active geopolitical market.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,129 resolved trades and $54.8K in lifetime profit.
- They are positioned across 2 related markets with about $5.3K tied to the same event.
- This is a contrarian entry after Yes jumped about 20 points in the last day.
$1,395 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable cross-market bettor
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
- This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
- They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
- The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
$1,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Top Holders
- 0xc040...beac — Outcome 90748303, $58,245 (50% win rate)
- 0x453a...81d2 — Outcome 90748303, $36,587 (0% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 90748303, $22,124 (6% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 90748303, $17,894 (73% win rate)
- 0x4042...ddfc — Outcome 90748303, $16,068
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 90748303, $15,000 (49% win rate)
- 0xf0d5...c665 — Outcome 90748303, $12,957 (92% win rate)
- 0x64a9...7311 — Outcome 90748303, $12,821
- 0x70ff...b65f — Outcome 90748303, $11,833
- 0x98a7...df9e — Outcome 90748303, $11,500
Related Theses
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 2 related markets
Iran deal by June end
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Trump accepts fees, rejects enrichment
Covers 2 related markets
Iran talks happen early
Covers 4 related markets
Starmer out by May 2026
Covers 4 related markets
Ceasefire arrives after July 24
Covers 3 related markets
WTI will surge above $90
Covers 2 related markets
US gets Iranian uranium soon
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran talks happen in June
Covers 5 related markets
