Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether the United States, under Trump, will agree to Iran charging mandatory fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if U.S. acceptance of Iranian tolls, transit fees, or passage charges is confirmed by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,109 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this geopolitical longshot market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,427.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
92% winner buying No
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 92% resolved-bet win rate bought No despite the alert itself being only a weak price-impact signal.
- This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades, with 47 wins and 4 losses.
- They are up $8.3k lifetime on $334k invested, making the wallet itself the main signal.
- The trade backs No at 89¢, a high-probability position on a liquid geopolitical market.
$1,109 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Million-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No after taking a prior Yes position off, suggesting a shifted thesis despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor has a long track record: 955 resolved bets and $1.16M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 64 events and 116 markets.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 89¢, suggesting a thesis shift.
$1,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable sharp buying longshot
Surface: a profitable 78% win-rate wallet with prior flags is buying Yes at 15¢ on a geopolitics market while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 15¢, a longshot entry that could pay about 6.7x if correct.
- The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
$1,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable cross-market bettor
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
- This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
- They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
- The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
$3,040 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%
Profitable macro regular
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is fading the recent Yes rally with a $7.6k No buy, though the signal is moderate rather than very strong.
- This bettor is up $268k lifetime across 179 resolved markets.
- They have traded 103 markets across 43 events, suggesting this is an experienced cross-market operator.
- The buy backs No at 82¢ after Yes rallied 17 points this week.
$7,611 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable bettor fading rally
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market No position while fading a sharp Yes rally in an active geopolitical market.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,129 resolved trades and $54.8K in lifetime profit.
- They are positioned across 2 related markets with about $5.3K tied to the same event.
- This is a contrarian entry after Yes jumped about 20 points in the last day.
$1,395 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cross-market bettor
High-scoring geopolitical alert with a profitable wallet buying No into a major volume spike and sharp price move across related markets.
- This wallet is up $517K lifetime despite betting in large, difficult markets.
- They are positioning across related Iran/Strait of Hormuz markets, with about $14K tied to the same event theme.
- The market has seen a 28.6x volume spike and a huge 1-day price move, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
$1,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
- This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.
$1,993 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
- This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.
$1,641 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ as part of an $18k cross-market Iran/Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢, implying a low-cost long-shot position.
- This is part of $18k positioned across related markets in the same event.
$2,006 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x6000...f302 — No, $78,324 (80% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Yes, $51,006 (43% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $42,845 (69% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $21,276 (64% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $20,775 (54% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $19,484 (63% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $19,412 (36% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $17,894 (72% win rate)
- 0xaf23...aa95 — Yes, $13,135 (63% win rate)
- 0x0cba...92d3 — No, $12,373
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