Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
This prediction market asks whether Iran and Oman will announce a qualifying diplomatic agreement on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market currently shows one tracked smart-money signal backing No, with $1,435 in smart money tracked; it resolves Yes only if an official agreement or comparable diplomatic instrument is announced by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,551.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Serial 76% winner backs No
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate placed a fresh $1,116 No bet amid a sharp market move toward No.
- This bettor has won 264 of 349 resolved trades and is up about $918,000 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 84 events and 228 markets, suggesting an experienced, repeatable process rather than a random wager.
- No was bought at 64¢ after the market fell 55.5% over the past week, reinforcing the bearish direction.
$1,435 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial 76% winner backs No
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate placed a fresh $1,116 No bet amid a sharp market move toward No.
- This bettor has won 264 of 349 resolved trades and is up about $918,000 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 84 events and 228 markets, suggesting an experienced, repeatable process rather than a random wager.
- No was bought at 64¢ after the market fell 55.5% over the past week, reinforcing the bearish direction.
$1,116 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $30,208 (69% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $23,624 (56% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $16,177 (34% win rate)
- 0x8792...4174 — No, $15,617 (84% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $13,949 (62% win rate)
- 0x85a8...9281 — No, $5,656 (93% win rate)
- 0x8833...2393 — No, $4,500 (82% win rate)
- 0x96b4...7e39 — Yes, $4,000
- 0xbf96...9942 — Yes, $3,481 (79% win rate)
- 0x22a9...97ba — No, $3,208 (59% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Covers 4 related markets
