Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes only if both countries officially announce or credible reporting confirms the agreement; the provided data tracks $1,453 in smart money and does not include live market odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,038.
Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy
Notable Trades
7-wallet funded cluster backs Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning toward Yes, though the wallet’s historical performance is not clearly superior to its entry odds.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this event, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This trader has placed bets across 65 events and 105 markets, with $2.25M in total activity.
- The trade implies buying Yes around 56¢, while the market has recently risen 7.5% over a week.
$1,453 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet cluster betting No
A seven-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader made a concentrated No position across four related markets, indicating coordinated conviction despite only moderate individual track record.
- Seven linked wallets share a funder, with coordinated activity totaling about $9,500.
- This trader has participated across 60 events and 97 markets, with a 67% win rate and $131,866 lifetime profit.
- The wallet invested about $3,916 in No across four related markets while No later traded near 46%, below its roughly 54¢ weighted entry.
$3,917 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Coordinated Yes flow with market momentum
Three wallets placed $9.3K in coordinated Yes bets, with the flow accompanying a 15.5-point daily price rise and participation from highly active profitable traders.
- Three wallets committed $9,304 to Yes, including two highly active traders with 67% and 71% historical win rates.
- The buying preceded a sharp move from roughly 48–59¢ to 63¢, suggesting the cluster helped identify meaningful upside.
- The position represents about 30% of the market’s 24-hour volume, making the coordinated flow notable despite mixed individual track records.
$9,304 on Yes
Serial trader scales into Yes
A highly active cross-market trader with 1,641 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position at 55¢ in a thin market that has risen 11.5% over one day.
- This trader has made 1,641 resolved bets, wins 70% of them, and is up $71,672 overall.
- They added $3,365 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment on the market above $12,500.
- The market is relatively thin and Yes has climbed 11.5% in a day, supporting the trader’s bullish positioning.
$3,365 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xf9b7...60a4 — No, $11,826 (66% win rate)
- 0x97ea...3363 — Yes, $9,231 (71% win rate)
- 0x5685...62e2 — No, $6,294 (92% win rate)
- 0x4655...b1bc — Yes, $3,786 (88% win rate)
- 0x06d3...b956 — No, $2,918 (86% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $1,882 (60% win rate)
- 0x32b4...7f09 — No, $1,863 (100% win rate)
- 0x816f...ace1 — Yes, $1,759
- 0xa494...5e1d — Yes, $1,517
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $1,500 (52% win rate)
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