Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if both countries officially announce the agreement or credible reporting confirms mutual consent; otherwise, it resolves No. Current metadata shows $3,917 in tracked smart money across one signal, with recent activity on both sides.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,585.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet cluster betting No

A seven-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader made a concentrated No position across four related markets, indicating coordinated conviction despite only moderate individual track record.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder, with coordinated activity totaling about $9,500.
  • This trader has participated across 60 events and 97 markets, with a 67% win rate and $131,866 lifetime profit.
  • The wallet invested about $3,916 in No across four related markets while No later traded near 46%, below its roughly 54¢ weighted entry.

$3,917 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Coordinated Yes flow with market momentum

Three wallets placed $9.3K in coordinated Yes bets, with the flow accompanying a 15.5-point daily price rise and participation from highly active profitable traders.

  • Three wallets committed $9,304 to Yes, including two highly active traders with 67% and 71% historical win rates.
  • The buying preceded a sharp move from roughly 48–59¢ to 63¢, suggesting the cluster helped identify meaningful upside.
  • The position represents about 30% of the market’s 24-hour volume, making the coordinated flow notable despite mixed individual track records.

$9,304 on Yes

Serial trader scales into Yes

A highly active cross-market trader with 1,641 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position at 55¢ in a thin market that has risen 11.5% over one day.

  • This trader has made 1,641 resolved bets, wins 70% of them, and is up $71,672 overall.
  • They added $3,365 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment on the market above $12,500.
  • The market is relatively thin and Yes has climbed 11.5% in a day, supporting the trader’s bullish positioning.

$3,365 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf9b7...60a4 No, $11,826 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x97ea...3363 Yes, $9,231 (70% win rate)
  3. 0xe234...304a No, $3,339 (66% win rate)
  4. 0x06d3...b956 No, $2,551 (87% win rate)
  5. 0x4655...b1bc Yes, $1,958 (88% win rate)
  6. 0x32b4...7f09 No, $1,863 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xd632...8afb Yes, $1,759
  8. 0xd352...4ad6 Yes, $1,535 (48% win rate)
  9. 0xa494...5e1d Yes, $1,517
  10. 0xd426...334a Yes, $1,500 (50% win rate)

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Iran blockade ends in August

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Ceasefire lasts into October, not December

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Fed will hike rates 25 bps

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Ceasefire delayed beyond 2027

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Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

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Iranian blockade ends mid-August

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Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

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Vitality Wins Counter-Strike Map One

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Aurora will win both maps

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

292dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$16,585 tracked3 signalsUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
55¢
No
46¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
67¢
58¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

4d ago

$3,917 on No at 54¢

54¢46¢8¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

6d ago

$9,304 on Yes at 63¢

63¢55¢8¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

7d ago

$3,365 on Yes at 55¢

55¢55¢

Related Theses

Iran blockade ends in August
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US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Ceasefire lasts into October, not December
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Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
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Will there be no change in Fed…Will the Fed increase interest…
Ceasefire delayed beyond 2027
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Iranian blockade ends mid-August
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US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
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US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…
Carlos Alcaraz wins US Open match
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Vitality Wins Counter-Strike Map One
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Aurora will win both maps
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