Part of: Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $132,251.
Categories: Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
89% winner buying long-shot No
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite the market pricing it as a long shot.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $172.9K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 75 events and $3.08M total activity.
- They have $20.2K positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,323 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Perfect-record whale buying Yes
Surface despite the low composite score because this is a very large Yes buy from a wallet with a perfect 16-0 resolved record and strong lifetime profit.
- This bettor has won 16 of 16 resolved bets and is up about $180K lifetime.
- They put $77.6K on Yes, larger than the market’s displayed liquidity.
- The wallet has been flagged 5 times before and is still placing high-conviction geopolitical bets.
$77,595 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable ceasefire-break bettor
Profitable wallet is expressing a coordinated No thesis across three related Iran ceasefire markets, alongside a 16.8x volume spike.
- This wallet is up $148K lifetime and has put $60.7K across 3 related markets in this event.
- The market just saw a 16.8x volume spike, suggesting broader attention is moving toward this thesis.
- Buying No at 14¢ offers a high-upside bet if the ceasefire fails before May 23.
$1,336 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
90% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 90% record is buying Yes as part of a large cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $288K lifetime.
- They have put $60.7K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- The Yes buy at 89¢ is slightly above the current 86¢ price, offering a cheaper entry than the trader got.
$3,860 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced, highly profitable cross-market trader is buying No on a geopolitical ceasefire market at long-shot odds, with $18.4k positioned across the related event.
- This bettor is up about $813k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have traded 52 related-event setups before, totaling over $2.1M in cross-market activity.
- Buying No at 11¢ is a concentrated long-shot view that the ceasefire fails before resolution.
$2,956 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
90% winner event thesis
Sharp 90% win-rate wallet with $288k lifetime profit is adding to a broader $52k cross-market thesis on this event.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $288,610 lifetime.
- They have placed $51,973 across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader event-level view.
- Buying at 90¢ shows confidence in the high-probability side despite already liquid market odds.
$1,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp 90% cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate and +$288k P&L is adding to a broader $52.7k cross-market ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $288,610 lifetime.
- They have put $52,713 across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- Entry at 88¢ is high-conviction, but still offers upside if the market resolves Yes.
$1,865 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
97% winner backs Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 97% resolved win rate bought nearly $8.9k of Yes on a geopolitical ceasefire market.
- This bettor has won 97% of 980 resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 56 events, with $381k flagged in this pattern.
- An $8.9k buy at 89¢ shows confidence the ceasefire holds through May 23.
$8,895 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
90% winner cross-market sharp
Sharp 90% winner with $704k lifetime profit is buying Yes as part of a larger six-market cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $704k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 38 events with $1.7M total volume.
- This is part of a broader $21.8k position across 6 related markets.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
86% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes amid a major volume spike and cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $5.4k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 90¢ while volume spiked 382x above normal.
- The same wallet has $13.9k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,362 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x1cc1...b8df — No, $82,042 (56% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — No, $51,712 (67% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $42,460 (76% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — No, $32,397 (87% win rate)
- 0xd005...f2c5 — No, $25,024 (50% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — No, $21,208 (52% win rate)
- 0x24fc...9fd4 — No, $18,142
- 0x0e45...5b3f — No, $18,121 (44% win rate)
- 0xd35f...2589 — No, $15,386
- 0x1dab...840b — No, $13,079 (53% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
