Iran ceasefire continues through...?
19 signals across 5 markets · $90,356 tracked
This Polymarket event tracks whether the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through two key dates: May 22 and May 31. Traders are pricing the risk of a qualifying U.S. kinetic action on Iranian soil before each deadline, with PolySpotter tracking $18,179 in smart money activity and recent whale buying on the No side.
Markets (5)
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?8 signals · $36,279 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?6 signals · $33,927 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?3 signals · $17,153 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?1 signal · $1,597 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?1 signal · $1,400 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Three-wallet No cluster
Coordinated No buying across three wallets, a 40x volume spike, and a serial cross-market trader make this geopolitical trade worth monitoring despite mixed wallet histories.
$8,697Score: 10.7 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market amid a major volume spike.
$4,822Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 8.9 - Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is net buying Yes into a large volume spike on a geopolitics market, with the latest entry below current odds.
$6,525Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 8.0 - New geopolitical whale
A very new wallet is putting over $10k into No across related Iran ceasefire markets, a plausible informed geopolitical thesis despite no proven track record.
$10,179Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 7.5 - 81% win-rate cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a geopolitical ceasefire market.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 7.0 - Profitable wallets buying YES
Three profitable, experienced wallets bought the same side on a geopolitical ceasefire market, with early entries already moving from ~68–69¢ to 80¢.
$7,938Score: 6.1 - Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the No side on a geopolitics market, with $10k positioned across two related markets despite only moderate historical win rate.
$1,495Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 6.0 - Serial cross-market winner
Serial cross-market trader with a 66% record and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes across the Iran ceasefire event.
$1,020Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 6.0 - 88% serial cross-market winner
A highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate bought Yes on a geopolitics market amid a major volume spike.
$4,077Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 5.6 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a large profitable history is buying Yes in a geopolitics market, though the trade size and signal strength are modest.
$1,600Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x20d919…5490$21,490 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 62% wins
- 0x0fce09…a98f$18,179 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 0% wins
- 0x5f176a…519e$13,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x53e55b…6177$6,153 · 1 market · 1 alert · 43% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$4,400 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xe52c0a…6924$4,077 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0x8f2f04…b226$2,725 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$1,600 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$1,597 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran ceasefire prediction markets covering?
The event includes markets on whether the US-Iranian ceasefire continues through May 22 and through May 31. Each market resolves based on whether the ceasefire is still considered in effect through the listed date.
What would make the Iran ceasefire market resolve No?
A market resolves No if the U.S. government publicly confirms, or credible reporting overwhelmingly confirms, that the U.S. conducted a qualifying kinetic military action on Iranian soil before that market’s resolution date.
What is smart money doing on the Iran ceasefire markets?
PolySpotter has tracked $18,179 in smart money across this event, including a recent “new geopolitical whale” signal and whale buying on the No side. That suggests at least one large trader is positioning for ceasefire-break risk.
How should I read the odds for May 22 vs. May 31?
The May 22 market reflects nearer-term ceasefire risk, while the May 31 market captures a longer window for escalation. If traders see rising geopolitical risk, the later-date market may price a higher chance of No.