Iran ceasefire continues through...?
224 signals across 12 markets · $933,185 tracked
This Polymarket event tracks whether the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through two key dates: May 22 and May 31. Traders are pricing the risk of a qualifying U.S. kinetic action on Iranian soil before each deadline, with PolySpotter tracking $18,179 in smart money activity and recent whale buying on the No side.
Markets (12)
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?58 signals · $217,933 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?49 signals · $187,430 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?19 signals · $132,251 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?25 signals · $97,892 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?15 signals · $83,611 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?10 signals · $38,978 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?11 signals · $35,338 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?6 signals · $33,927 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?13 signals · $32,999 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?6 signals · $26,143 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?6 signals · $24,408 tracked
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?6 signals · $22,275 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp wallets piling into No
Strong coordinated No positioning with a 197x volume spike, major price impact, and multiple profitable cross-market bettors, though one small Yes sale looks like profit-taking.
$12,016Score: 25.3 - 84% serial trader buys Yes
Surface: a highly profitable 84% win-rate serial cross-market trader joined a 3-wallet Yes cluster on a news-sensitive ceasefire market, though opposing No flow tempers the signal.
$9,680Score: 21.2 - Sharp cluster buying No
Six wallets, including several highly profitable serial event traders, bought $26k of No as the market repriced sharply toward a ceasefire break.
$26,333Score: 21.1 - Profitable serial cross-market sharp
Sharp 80% lifetime winner with $2.3M profit is making a high-conviction No bet as part of a broader six-market Iran-ceasefire thesis.
$1,127Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 17.2 - Sharp No-buying cluster
High-scoring four-wallet cluster is buying No, backed by one very strong 84% winner and multiple cross-market bettors positioning around the same Iran event.
$11,416Score: 16.5 - Linked cluster buying No
Surfacing because five wallets coordinated on the No side, with linked funding and participation from a profitable 75% bettor despite mixed records across the cluster.
$13,686Score: 14.3 - Linked cluster buying rebound
Four wallets, including a linked pair and a serial cross-market trader, are buying Yes together after a sharp selloff in a geopolitically sensitive market.
$5,345Score: 13.0 - Sharp cluster buying No
Four wallets bought nearly $10k of No, led by highly profitable cross-market traders with 89% and 75% win records as the market has moved sharply toward No.
$9,921Score: 13.0 - Sharp cluster buying dip
Four wallets, including a 95% historical winner and a serial cross-market trader, are jointly buying Yes after a sharp selloff in a geopolitically sensitive market.
$7,868Score: 11.5 - New whale on thin market
A 10-day-old repeat whale is taking a $4.25k No position in an extremely quiet geopolitical market, far larger than recent market volume.
$4,254Score: 11.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0x335592…a126$77,595 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x12d6cc…f2a8$77,068 · 8 markets · 18 alerts · 49% wins
- 0xbc43a2…1540$67,274 · 1 market · 13 alerts · 84% wins
- 0x2974bd…9c23$63,472 · 7 markets · 19 alerts · 89% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$41,218 · 9 markets · 14 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x5188fa…c804$35,667 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x87ca1e…3448$27,926 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 50% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$24,951 · 5 markets · 10 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x8f2f04…b226$24,171 · 4 markets · 14 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x5f176a…519e$23,500 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 90% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran ceasefire prediction markets covering?
The event includes markets on whether the US-Iranian ceasefire continues through May 22 and through May 31. Each market resolves based on whether the ceasefire is still considered in effect through the listed date.
What would make the Iran ceasefire market resolve No?
A market resolves No if the U.S. government publicly confirms, or credible reporting overwhelmingly confirms, that the U.S. conducted a qualifying kinetic military action on Iranian soil before that market’s resolution date.
What is smart money doing on the Iran ceasefire markets?
PolySpotter has tracked $18,179 in smart money across this event, including a recent “new geopolitical whale” signal and whale buying on the No side. That suggests at least one large trader is positioning for ceasefire-break risk.
How should I read the odds for May 22 vs. May 31?
The May 22 market reflects nearer-term ceasefire risk, while the May 31 market captures a longer window for escalation. If traders see rising geopolitical risk, the later-date market may price a higher chance of No.