Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,151.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

93% sharp in 17-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet is buying No, with backing from a large 17-wallet shared-funder cluster.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $76.6K lifetime.
The wallet belongs to a 17-wallet shared-funder cluster, suggesting coordinated conviction.
They bought No at 84¢ on a politics market where information edge is plausible.

$1,529 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% sharp in 17-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet is buying No, with backing from a large 17-wallet shared-funder cluster.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $76.6K lifetime.
The wallet belongs to a 17-wallet shared-funder cluster, suggesting coordinated conviction.
They bought No at 84¢ on a politics market where information edge is plausible.

$1,632 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% sharp in 17-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet is buying No, with backing from a large 17-wallet shared-funder cluster.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $76.6K lifetime.
The wallet belongs to a 17-wallet shared-funder cluster, suggesting coordinated conviction.
They bought No at 84¢ on a politics market where information edge is plausible.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

78% winner with Iran thesis

Surface because a profitable 78% lifetime winner is building a cross-market Iran-related thesis, buying No at 75¢ on a plausible information-sensitive market.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $32k lifetime.
They have put $13.6k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 75¢ implies they see the public-appearance odds as overstated.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

78% winner with Iran thesis

Surface because a profitable 78% lifetime winner is building a cross-market Iran-related thesis, buying No at 75¢ on a plausible information-sensitive market.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $32k lifetime.
They have put $13.6k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 75¢ implies they see the public-appearance odds as overstated.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

78% winner with Iran thesis

Surface because a profitable 78% lifetime winner is building a cross-market Iran-related thesis, buying No at 75¢ on a plausible information-sensitive market.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $32k lifetime.
They have put $13.6k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 75¢ implies they see the public-appearance odds as overstated.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial event trader

High-composite alert from a profitable serial cross-market trader adding a $4k No bet in a thin geopolitical market.

This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.8k lifetime.
They are active across this same event, with $9.9k spread over 4 related markets.
The $4.0k No buy is large for a thin market with only $4.5k liquidity.

$3,989 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

0x7447...a16d — Outcome 70343930, $76,718 (58% win rate)
0xa06e...f56f — Outcome 70343930, $20,506
0x53e5...6177 — Outcome 70343930, $17,765 (43% win rate)
0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 70343930, $15,000 (58% win rate)
0xc3db...0f98 — Outcome 70343930, $12,843 (41% win rate)
0x1086...27d2 — Outcome 70343930, $10,465
0x5e62...c577 — Outcome 70343930, $9,156
0x145a...5e86 — Outcome 70343930, $6,386 (69% win rate)
0x0484...e0ee — Outcome 70343930, $6,195 (58% win rate)
0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 70343930, $5,837 (70% win rate)

Related Theses

Israel closes airspace in July

Covers 4 related markets

Ships keep transiting Hormuz

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Brazil Germany or Portugal wins

Covers 3 related markets

Iran commits to Hormuz restraint

Covers 1 related market

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

ResolvedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?$19,151 tracked7 signalsMiddle EastIsraelIranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.