Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by June 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $2,436 in smart money across 1 signal, including recent activity from sharp cross-market political and Iran-focused bettors.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

44 smart money signals detected, totaling $149,415.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market Iran bettor

Profitable 75% lifetime wallet is extending a $25.5k cross-market Iran thesis by buying No at 75¢ despite already-liquid market conditions.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
  • They have placed $25.5k across 5 related Iran markets, showing a coordinated thesis.
  • Buying No at 75¢ aligns with the market’s recent move, with Yes down 23 points this week.

$2,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is making a cross-market Iran ceasefire bet on No, with a long history of positive returns across many events.

  • This bettor is up $211k lifetime across more than 1,500 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 368 markets across 163 events, showing a repeat cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 76¢ aligns with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 24 points over the past week.

$1,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% record is adding a cross-market No position aligned with strong recent market momentum against a ceasefire/agreement announcement.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
  • They are backing the same Iran-event thesis across multiple related markets, with over $36K in correlated positions flagged.
  • The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 13 points today and 27 points this week.

$3,728 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable 73% wallet is expressing a cross-market thesis with $36k across three related Iran-ceasefire markets, adding $5k to No as prices move that direction.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 62 resolved trades and is up $48k lifetime.
  • They have placed $36k across 3 related markets, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 13 points in the past day.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable 75% lifetime wallet is building a broader cross-market Iran thesis and bought No at 75¢ after Yes odds fell sharply.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
  • They have placed about $25k across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Yes odds are down 11.5 points today and 28.5 points this week, matching the bettor’s No position.

$2,729 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

$65K cross-market thesis

Profitable wallet is expressing a $65K cross-market No thesis across four related Iran agreement markets, though this specific entry has moved slightly against them.

  • This profitable bettor is up $11K lifetime and has bet $65K across 4 related markets.
  • They are backing No at 73¢, implying confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement announcement lands by the deadline.
  • The market is liquid, but the cross-market sizing suggests a broader geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$7,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 34¢ after heavy related positioning across the same Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $532K lifetime.
  • They have traded 143 markets across 50 events, with $2.3M total invested and strong results.
  • Selling No at 66¢ is the same as buying Yes at 34¢, after $184K of positioning across related markets.

$1,980 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial cross-market winner

Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% record across 1,209 resolved bets is buying No while also positioning across five related markets.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 1,209 resolved bets and is up $170,782 lifetime.
  • They are active across 5 related markets in this event, with $22,277 positioned overall.
  • Buying No at 67¢ follows strong market momentum, with Yes down 11 points today and 52 points this week.

$1,593 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable cross-market Iran bettor

Profitable wallet with a 72% record and $222k lifetime profit is rebuilding a Yes position as part of a broader $49k cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 75 resolved trades and is up $222k lifetime.
  • They have placed nearly $49k across 5 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying Yes at 33¢ goes against a sharp recent drop, implying they see rebound value.

$1,485 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% historical win rate is effectively buying Yes at 34¢ as part of a large cross-market Iran-event thesis.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,904 lifetime.
  • They have traded 8 markets in this same event, totaling $184,367 of related positioning.
  • Selling No at 66¢ is effectively buying Yes at 34¢ after a 51-point weekly drop.

$1,848 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe541...d45d Yes, $67,000 (45% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $25,332 (82% win rate)
  3. 0x4a41...242a Yes, $22,994 (49% win rate)
  4. 0xc884...e17e Yes, $21,723 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $20,705 (72% win rate)
  6. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $20,264 (75% win rate)
  7. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $19,627 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x09a5...caaa No, $14,840 (86% win rate)
  9. 0xbe97...6347 Yes, $12,296 (84% win rate)
  10. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $10,724 (47% win rate)

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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

6dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$149,415 tracked44 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran
Yes
26¢
No
75¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
77¢
51¢
26¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

6h ago

$2,436 on No at 75¢

75¢75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

6h ago

$1,900 on No at 76¢

76¢75¢1¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

8h ago

$3,728 on No at 76¢

76¢75¢1¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

8h ago

$5,000 on No at 76¢

76¢75¢1¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

9h ago

$2,729 on No at 75¢

75¢75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

11h ago

$7,300 on No at 73¢

73¢75¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

20h ago

$1,980 on Yes at 34¢

34¢26¢8¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$1,593 on No at 67¢

67¢75¢8¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$1,485 on Yes at 33¢

33¢26¢7¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$1,848 on Yes at 34¢

34¢26¢8¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$9,500 on No at 64¢

64¢75¢11¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$1,830 on Yes at 39¢

39¢26¢13¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$3,957 on Yes at 36¢

36¢26¢10¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$1,284 on Yes at 36¢

36¢26¢10¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$1,855 on No at 62¢

62¢75¢13¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

1d ago

$5,237 on No at 65¢

65¢75¢10¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$1,397 on Yes at 47¢

47¢26¢21¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$1,144 on No at 52¢

52¢75¢23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$1,580 on No at 49¢

49¢75¢26¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$4,976 on No at 47¢

47¢75¢28¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$3,565 on No at 30¢

30¢75¢45¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$1,117 on Yes at 70¢

70¢26¢44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$2,401 on No at 30¢

30¢75¢45¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$2,105 on Yes at 65¢

65¢26¢39¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$1,818 on No at 41¢

41¢75¢34¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$1,224 on Yes at 59¢

59¢26¢33¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

3d ago

$1,720 on No at 43¢

43¢75¢32¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

3d ago

$2,579 on No at 43¢

43¢75¢32¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

3d ago

$2,293 on No at 38¢

38¢75¢37¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

3d ago

$3,679 on No at 43¢

43¢75¢32¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

2d ago

$5,670 on Yes at 70¢

70¢26¢44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

3d ago

$2,342 on Yes at 38¢

38¢26¢12¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

4d ago

$1,114 on No at 60¢

60¢75¢15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

4d ago

$2,280 on No at 57¢

57¢75¢18¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

4d ago

$2,350 on No at 47¢

47¢75¢28¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

4d ago

$2,968 on No at 33¢

33¢75¢42¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

4d ago

$8,249 on No at 33¢

33¢75¢42¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

4d ago

$3,171 on No at 32¢

32¢75¢43¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

5d ago

$29,217 on No at 59¢

59¢75¢16¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

6d ago

$1,051 on Yes at 68¢

68¢26¢42¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

6d ago

$1,750 on No at 25¢

25¢75¢50¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

6d ago

$1,480 on Yes at 74¢

74¢26¢48¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

7d ago

$1,110 on No at 35¢

35¢75¢40¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

7d ago

$1,403 on Yes at 72¢

72¢26¢46¢

Related Theses